Why Aaron Nola is the Phillies’ Most Important Player
Aaron Nola was the 7th overall pick in the 2014 MLB Amateur Draft. In that same draft, 3 other pitchers were drafted with the first 3 overall picks. Brady Aiken (Astros), Tyler Kolek (Marlins), and Carlos Rodon (White Sox) were selected in that order, followed by a few position players before the Phillies were on the clock with the 7th selection in the draft. Aaron Nola, a product of LSU, was sitting there for the Phillies’ taking after enjoying a stellar college career with the Tigers. Nola was highly touted coming out, and was seen by many scouts as the most major league- ready pitcher in the draft. Nola made his debut for the Phillies on July 21, 2015 against the Tampa Bay Rays, just over a year after he was drafted. He went 6 innings in that game, allowing just 1 run on 5 hits while striking out 6 batters. Nola showed flashes of his potential from the start, showing his command of the strike zone and his poise out on the mound, drawing some comparisons to the pitching tactics of Greg Maddux and other past players who relied upon their command and their location to get guys out.
It was clear since the very second that the Phillies took Aaron Nola with such an early draft pick that he would be a big part of their plans going forward. He went on to finish 2015 with a 6-2 record with a 3.59 ERA over 77.2 innings pitched while striking out 68 batters over 13 starts. Nola drew some deserving Opening Day start consideration heading into 2016 before it was handed to the more experienced Jeremy Hellickson, but it was clear that even though he didn’t get the ball out of the gate, Nola would be leaned upon to be the anchor for the Phillies’ starting rotation. The righty, 22 years old heading into 2016, never really found his footing in his first full year with the Phils, putting up a 6-9 record with a not-so-flashy 4.78 ERA in 20 starts before coming down with several aches and pains in his right elbow, which subsequently led to him being shut down for the rest of the year in August. The often seen “sophomore slump” came around to bite Nola, leading to many questioning whether or not he was handed the reigns of the rotation a little too soon. In my opinion, I’m fine with the way he has been dealt with so far. Once this rebuild is complete and this guy is one of most experienced arms in the rotation, no one will be questioning the decision making of years past.
“Okay, yeah, cool. We get it. He’s supposed to be good. We’ve heard and seen it. So why are you telling us this?”
Well, that’s because I feel as though this guy is the most important piece that the Phillies possess at this very moment. This guy can alter the whole entire future of this team and their roster. And here’s why:
The Phillies will head into the 2017 season with a rotation most likely consisting of these 5 players: Nola, Jeremy Hellickson, Jerad Eickhoff, Vince Velasquez, and the newly acquired Clay Buchholz. Buchholz is likely the only non-guarantee of the group, being that he saw more success in 2016 for the Red Sox out of the bullpen than in the starting rotation, but with the $13.5 million price tag that he brings with him to the Phils, they’re not going to want to pay him that much to be a middle reliever. That leaves the Phillies with several other young arms that could make an argument for taking one of those 5 spots in the rotation. Jake Thompson, Alec Asher, Zach Eflin, Adam Morgan, Mark Appel, Ben Lively, and Nick Pivetta round out a potential list of 7 young arms that the Phillies could easily slide into their rotation at any time before and during the 2017 season. Nola would likely be the last name considered if the Phillies wanted to replace someone from the first 5 with a guy listed in the remaining 7. All of a sudden, the Phillies have a log jam, but this is most certainly one of the better problems to have. This surplus of young arms leaves them with options. It wouldn’t be the worst idea in the world to leave all 7 of those names mentioned after the projected starting rotation in the Minor Leagues for the time being. Even players such as Eflin or Asher who have shown that they can hang with Major League hitters wouldn’t exactly force us fans to cry ourselves to sleep at night if they got a little more time down on the farm. Also, injuries always happen. If one starter got hurt, one of the youngsters would have to head up to the big club. With Velasquez and Nola each coming off injury-shortened seasons, and with Buchholz’s injury history, something’s going to happen, whether it’s something small like fatigue, or potentially, but hopefully not, something worse. The depth the Phillies have at the position definitely helps this cause.
Where does Aaron Nola tie into all this, though? Well, it’s simple. It all depends on his efficiency and him living up to his potential. If he shows that he can be the ace this team expects him to be, it makes a lot of their other arms expendable. If you’ve got your 1-2 punch in Nola and Eickhoff for the foreseeable future, the likes of Hellickson and Buchholz, who are already July trade candidates, as well as Vince Velasquez, become players that you can trade for depth at other positions while being able to just slide in the likes of Thompson, Eflin, Asher, etc. at the bottom of the rotation.
Velasquez is someone who is very interesting to look at in this case. Ever since he threw a complete game shutout against the Padres on April 14, 2016 in which he struck out 16 batters and allowed just three hits, he has been looked at as a potential ace for this ball club. As the season went on, he began to digress and saw his season cut short by injuries as well. Everyone noticed his potential on that 16-strikeout day, though, including pitching-needy teams who inquired on him at the July 31st trade deadline. The fact that the Phillies were even willing to listen to offers for him at that time says that they wouldn’t be totally against getting rid of him for the right deal, and if Aaron Nola can fill the void of staff ace for the Phillies for the foreseeable future, assets such as Velasquez would become that much more dispensable.
Let’s picture this: a rotation right now consisting of Nola, Hellickson, Eickhoff, Velasquez, and Buchholz. This is pretty solid. Now, let’s picture the Phillies being able to get rid of Hellickson, Buchholz, and potentially Velasquez, who would bring the biggest return of the 3 players here, and filling voids in other places on the diamond from the players they receive. Then, let’s just slide in the likes of Thompson, Eflin, and Asher for right now into the rotation spots that these 3 left open. Maybe the Phillies got a nice power hitting corner outfielder in a deal, or a shutdown backstop, or whatever they might end up getting in their hauls for their pitchers. A rotation of Nola, Eickhoff, Thompson, Eflin, and Asher, or any combination you might prefer out of the remaining young pitchers, doesn’t seem much worse, if worse at all, compared to the original starting rotation. Plus, the club will have improved in other spots on the roster, while still staying young in their rebuilding state. Matt Klentak and Co. could also gauge the interest of other teams in regards to the young arms that fall under those remaining 7. Maybe they can speed up their rebuild a bit if they traded 1 or 2 of those young pitchers for players needed elsewhere.
This is exactly why it all depends on Aaron Nola. If he is an ace, everyone else behind him in the rotation becomes that much more expendable. If not, the likes of Velasquez and others behind him become that much more important to the Phillies and their future. It will be interesting to see what Matt Klentak and the rest of the front office decide to do with their spare young pitching talent.
With that, Happy Holidays to you all! Enjoy your time with family, friends, and Phillies fans alike. Here’s to hoping that you don’t get the coal from Santa that so many Mets fans deserve instead.
Photo: Tom Hagerty (Via: Flickr)
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Categorized:Phillies