A Late Christmas List: Phillies Edition
The holiday season is coming to a close, and with it go the wish lists and mall frenzies associated with the season. We will head into the 4 (give or take a few days) month period between the new year and baseball’s Opening Day, when Phillies fans are given the greatest gift of all: 6 (hopefully closer to 7) months of Phils baseball. Yes, this gift can turn into a curse when Adam Morgan is on the hill, but that is beside point. Although Christmas is over, I still decided to make a new wish list, but this one being baseball-related.
After 5 playoff-less seasons, I have some pretty high expectations for the crop of young players that makeup the current roster in Philadelphia. Aaron Nola is in line for a breakout season, especially after being plagued by injuries in what was expected to be his first big league season. Maikel Franco simply was not consistent enough last year, and I wrote about his underwhelming 2016 a couple of months ago. He has some big strides to make, and this season will be his big test. Jerad Eickhoff did exactly what was asked of him last season, but there is curiosity as to just how effective he can be. After signing a big contract extension, Odubel Herrera has to play like an all-star for more than just the first three months of the season, he provides the spark for the entire lineup. Freddy Galvis was a gold glove finalist in 2016, and his glove is what will get him far in the MLB. Finally, the man we all want to see: JP Crawford. Crawford was drafted in 2013 and is the Phillies top prospect; it is time for the leap to the bigs.
I have 6 scenarios, one for each of the aforementioned players, that I would like to see play out over the course of the 2017 season; some are very realistic, and others would require a breakout season.
Aaron Nola to have a sub-3.00 ERA (earned run average)
Through his first 12 starts of 2016, Aaron Nola was sporting a 2.65 ERA and was a legitimate candidate for the all-star game. And all of a sudden, Nola couldn’t get anybody out. He had a long streak of starts lasting less than 5 innings, and he lost his ability to control his fastball, and this control makes him the top-of-the-rotation starter that the Phillies believe that he can become. If Nola wants to fulfill my wish, which I’m sure he does, two factors will be key: health and confidence.
The health factor is the less concerning of the two for me because the fact that he has had a prolonged period of rest from pitching should have him fresh for Spring Training, which will prepare him for another attempt at being a big league starter for the entire season. However, during the “dark period” of Nola’s 2016, he seemed to be completely lacking confidence in his pitches, which simply can’t happen for a righty who throws 92 miles per hour at his best. He relies on being able to fire the heater wherever he wants it to go so that the batter never knows what is coming at him. When Nola gets the opponent on a couple of fastballs with the movement that is capable of, he finishes him with a nasty curveball.
If Nola is in his own head during this sequence, questioning his ability to put the ball where the catcher wants it to go, it is nearly impossible to get into the head of the batter, and thus the strikeout stage.
To have an ERA below 3 for a starting pitcher would be flirting with an elite category of arms; from what I have seen from him in about 30 career starts, I think he can make it to that level, perhaps even this season.
Maikel Franco to hit 35+ home runs
If you haven’t read the article that I linked above, I would do so before reading this portion of the article. Basically, I explained how Franco’s consistency hindered his production but went into much more detail than I will here.
I was back and forth on whether I would hope for 30 or 35 homers from Franco in 2017, but, due to the fact that my expectations for him are much higher than they should be, I hesitantly went with the latter. We have all seen how streaky Maikel is, and how he can turn a two week home run drought into a 5 homer week. His power potential is through the roof, but he has to cut down (significantly) on the swings for the fences that make his helmet fall off.
I will always be confident of the fact that Franco has the potential to hit 35 home runs in a season, but his awareness at the plate is worrying to say the least. Matt Stairs, the team’s new hitting coach, should assist in fixing his approach to hitting, but his mentality needs to be completely changed. At times, when it seemed like he was finally aiming for a base hit instead of the left field bleachers, Maikel would swing so hard that he would fall to one knee before jogging to first on a popup hit to the second baseman.
This might be my most farfetched wish for the baseball season, but I’ll put my money on Franco’s work ethic and mental improvements.
Jerad Eickhoff to win 15 games
I’ve been raving about Eickhoff since his first game after being acquired in the Cole Hamels trade. The 6’5″ righty dominates batters in about the same way Nola does, except his fastball tops out at 95-96 miles per hour. His consistency and durability make him a solid middle of the rotation starter, and he, along with Jeremy Hellickson, carried the pitchers on his back last season because the 3-5 spots were basically just a glorified revolving door of injuries and mediocrity.
This wish is the one that I am most confident in actually happening, and it’s not really close. His skill set alone puts the team in position to win games, and with an improved lineup, I could see him eclipsing the 15 win mark. Excuse the constant self-promotion, but if you’re not quite as excited about Eickhoff’s potential as I am, I also wrote about his 2016 season, but in a different tone than the article about Franco.
I think he has a strong chance to be the Phillies’ best starter in 2017, and winning 15 games would be one hell of a way to build upon his big-time 2016.
Odubel Herrera to have a 20-20 season in 2017
El Torito struggles in the same department as Maikel Franco: consistency. As you probably know, Herrera was dominant pre-All Star Break and not so dominant post-Mid Summer Classic. In the 20-20 hunt, Odubel has the steals covered. He stole 25 bases last season. But the power is what I would like to see more of from him in 2017. He hit 15 home runs in his second major league season, but he also played 159 games. Another offseason to improve at the plate would surely result in a 20-20 season from Herrera, but to expect 159 game-durability from an everyday outfielder could be a wish in and of itself.
Especially with the additions of outfielders to the Phillies roster for 2017, I don’t think Odubel will be expected to play every single game. This being said, he has the talent to hit 20 home runs with 20 stolen bases even in a reduced amount of games played. The 20 long balls will surely be the most difficult to accomplish, but if he can avoid a stretch of games that he had in early-July to early-August of 2017, the goal will be much more tangible.
I think I could be in for another check mark to the list with a Herrera 20-20 year.
Freddy Galvis to win his first career Gold Glove
Before falling just short of the award to Giants SS Brandon Crawford, Freddy Galvis was a finalist for NL shortstops in the gold glove race. Had it not been for a couple of errors late in the season, Galvis could have even taken home the highest honor for defense in Major League Baseball. He has been the best player defensively for the Phillies sine he arrived in Philadelphia, and his play at short has kept him in professional baseball entirely. Freddy will be even more motivated to play his best baseball in 2017, as he very well knows that a kid named JP Crawford is hot on his tail for the position.
I have said in the past that Galvis has earned his spot in the lineup, and this is mostly due to his defensive dominance. If he continues this play into the next season, and cuts down on some sloppy errors in the field, a Gold Glove will be waiting for him in November.
I believe that Freddy is a fantastic defensive player, and one of the best shortstops (defensively) in the majors. An inspired Galvis could just get over the hump of a few bigger names en route to a Gold Glove, but it will be difficult with the likes of (Brandon) Crawford and Addison Russell playing in the NL.
JP Crawford to play 50 MLB games
I know what you’re thinking: how can he hope for Freddy Galvis to win a Gold Glove and for JP Crawford to play that much at the same time? I still believe that Crawford should become the Phillies second baseman if he proves that he is ready for promotion to major leagues. In the Cesar Hernandez or Freddy Galvis argument for odd man out upon Crawford’s arrival, I’d move Cesar every time, and it isn’t very close.
A middle infield of Galvis and Crawford would be great defensively and decent offensively, just about what you’d want from those positions. I am also tired of waiting for Crawford; nonetheless, I think he deserves to begin the year in the minors until he plays his way into the bigs. 50 games would be perfect for a player like Crawford to get his feet wet before taking over as the everyday Shortstop/Second Baseman in 2018.
The Phillies’ front office knows the Phandom is growing impatient with the development of Crawford, but they have held their ground in not promoting any players before they are completely ready for the jump. I think an early-August call-up would be ideal for the top prospect, who would be the most hyped call-up by the Phillies since the legendary Domonic Brown.
There you have it. My wishlist for the upcoming baseball season is complete, and now I just have to wait for Opening Day to start so I can watch these players deliver on my wishes. Here’s to 4 months of waiting for Phillies baseball and my growing anticipation. Happy holidays!
Photo by Peetlesnumber1 (via Wikimedia Commons)
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