Predicting the Top 4 2017 Phillies Statistically
At this time on Monday, February 13th, there will be actual Phillies players, in actual Phillies uniforms, doing actual Phillies baseball things together. Pitchers and catchers are so close that we can taste it. In honor of us being so darn close to seeing our first look at the 2017 Phillies, I’m taking one more stab at some predictions for the season, and this time I’m going to predict the top 4 in some of the main statistical categories for the Phils this year. Why 4? Well, if you don’t count today, we’re 4 days away from some of the talent the Phillies will showcase during Spring Training stepping onto the field for the first time. Yes, I know. All I’ve been doing over the last few weeks is predictions. At this point in time, though, that’s all we really can do as Phillies fans. The team is basically done constructing their personnel that they will bring to Clearwater, so all we can do now is wait and think about the possibilities with this team. With that said, here’s what I think the statistical leaders for this year’s version of our Philadelphia Phillies will look like by the season’s end. I’m going to take a stab at the actual numbers, too, because why not?
Before I begin, I want to say that I didn’t include any players that I think will not be a part of this team by the end of the 2017 season. Jeremy Hellickson, Clay Buchholz, Freddy Galvis, Howie Kendrick, Joaquin Benoit, and Pat Neshek all make my list of players who will be gone by July. Therefore, I’m not putting them on my list of Phillies leaders in statistical categories by the end of the season.
Home Runs:
1.) Maikel Franco: 31 HR
2.) Tommy Joseph: 27 HR
3.) Michael Saunders: 21 HR
4.) Odubel Herrera: 13 HR
- The top two are as close to obvious as can be. Franco led the club last year with 25 bombs, and I predicted him in my last article to have at least a 30 HR and 95 RBI season. Joseph hit 21 in just 315 at-bats. Coming in as the Phillies’ first baseman out of the gate, he will have plenty of chances to up that number. Saunders had 24 bombs last year, but 16 of them came in the first half, and he had never really been known for his power prior to last season, so I think that number drops, but only slightly. I predict a solid season from him in the hitter-friendly Citizens Bank Park, so while the power numbers as a whole might go down a touch, I think he puts together a nice overall season. As for the 4th spot, this was the toughest here. It was between Herrera and Cameron Rupp, and I only gave the nod to Herrera based on at-bats. I think Rupp eventually starts to lose AB’s to Jorge Alfaro and/or Andrew Knapp. Also, I think Freddy Galvis eventually loses his job to JP Crawford and getting traded. This all leaves Herrera, who is stapled in as a big part of the Phillies’ outfield for the foreseeable future, as the guy who has just enough power and plenty of at-bats to crack this list.
RBI:
1.) Maikel Franco: 96 RBI
2.) Michael Saunders: 78 RBI
3.) Tommy Joseph: 72 RBI
4.) Odubel Herrera: 65 RBI
- These top 4 sort of explain themselves after I listed the home run leaders, other than the flip-flopping of Saunders and Joseph. I feel as though most of Joseph’s RBI will come from the long ball, whereas Saunders will drive in runs with more singles and doubles. As for Herrera, he had 15 HR and just 49 RBI last year, so why do I have him at 13 HR and 65 RBI this year? How’s he going to drive in 16 more runs while having his home run numbers drop? Well, simply because the lineup around him this season will have a lot more punch than last year. Howie Kendrick and Michael Saunders will be getting on base a heck of a lot more than Peter Bourjos and Tyler Goeddel/Cedric Hunter/Cody Asche/Whoever else was thrown into Left Field last year. If Herrera sees himself slotted into the 3-hole behind Kendrick and Cesar Hernandez, who both are solid on-base hitters, Odubel will have a lot more chances to drive in runs than he did last season.
Batting Average (For full-time players only):
1.) Odubel Herrera: .292
2.) Cesar Hernandez: .288
3.) Maikel Franco: .274
4.) Michael Saunders: .268
- I’ll start from the bottom. I really wanted to put Howie Kendrick on this list. He hit .255 last year, his lowest average of his career by far. I think that he will come back around this year, though, as he had never hit lower than .279 during any season in his career prior to last. I left him off because I think he will be traded in July. Therefore, Saunders makes my list. He might look like one of the deadline deal players that Matt Klentak acquired this offseason, but as I explained in my 11 Predictions for the 2017 Phillies last week, I think Saunders earns himself another year with the Phils. He hit .253 overall last season, but he enjoyed a stellar first half in which he hit .298. I don’t think he will maintain that range for a whole year, but a 15-point uptick overall is a pretty good improvement. Maikel Franco is going to showcase more of the potential that he has shown so far in his big league career, and the batting average will rise with those power numbers rising at the same time. Hernandez and Herrera paced the Phils in this category last season, with Hernandez leading the way with a .294 batting average in 547 at-bats, and Herrera hit for a .286 average in 583 AB’s, which actually dropped from his rookie season in which he hit .297. I think he will meet right in the middle of those two numbers this upcoming season, and I think Hernandez has another very good season where his average drops just the slightest bit.
Stolen Bases:
1.) Cesar Hernandez: 24 SB
2.) Odubel Herrera: 21 SB
3.) Roman Quinn: 14 SB
4.) Michael Saunders: 8 SB
- The top two here will not be touched, as long as they stay healthy. Last season, Herrera, Stole 25 bases and Hernandez stole 17. I’ve got them flip flopping, due to the fact that Hernandez will spend more time as the leadoff man than he did last year, therefore being expected to steal some more bases. As for Herrera, he will find himself being more of a guy who is meant to drive in men on base, as opposed to being a table setter. Although not by much, his stolen base numbers could slide downward because of it. The last two spots likely would go to Freddy Galvis and Howie Kendrick, but that’s barring whether or not they make it the whole year. They’re not going to. Therefore, that leaves these full-time players to take these spots: Saunders, Franco, Joseph, Rupp. Franco, Joseph, and Rupp might not even combine for 8 steals. Saunders has a past of being able to steal some bags, with 21 steals in 2012 and 13 steals in 2013 with the Seattle Mariners. Last season, he only stole one single base with Toronto. He’s going to improve in that area. We like excitement. We like stolen bases. Do better. As for Quinn, he stole 5 bases during his cup of coffee for the Phils in September, and during his Minor League career as a full-time player which ranges back to 2012, his lowest number of steals in a season is 29. He didn’t play on the big league club until September 11th of last season, so he will likely see time for the Phils well before that this year, and if he gets on base, he will be a certified thief.
Wins:
1.) Vince Velasquez: 15 wins
T2.) Aaron Nola: 13 wins
T2.) Jerad Eickhoff: 13 wins
4.) Jake Thompson: 7 wins
- Referring back to my last article once again, I expect big things out of Vince Velasquez for the 2017 baseball season. This guy is a stud. He’s got the makings of a very good pitcher in this league for a very long time. He was bitten by the bug which has gotten to so many young pitchers over the past several years, though, and that’s the injury bug. I am just praying to the baseball gods that we get a full season out of him. Sure, give him a week off here and there to limit his innings, but dear god don’t let him hit the disabled list. If that doesn’t happen, he will dominate many games for many years. As for Nola and Eickhoff, I have them tied. I couldn’t decide who would edge the other in the wins column. Nola has yet to win more than 6 games in the Major Leagues, but I think he finally stays marginally healthy and puts a nice season together. Eickhoff became Ol’ Reliable last year, ending up with a record of 11-14, which clearly doesn’t show what he meant to last year’s ball club. In 33 starts, he racked up a decision in 27 of those, which in this day in age doesn’t happen often, due to the revolution of bullpens and innings limits. He eats innings, and he will do that again. Due to the Phillies not being a team that will likely win tons of games, I could see a similar near-.500 record for him, but I think he wins one or two more than he lost last year. Let’s put him at 13-12. As for the 4th spot, if Jeremy Hellickson or Clay Buchholz stuck around the whole year, they’d get this spot or maybe even one of the top 3, but they’re not going to stick around past July (hopefully). That gives one of the young studs who, in all likelihood, will start the year in the Minors to slide in and start some key games for the Phillies down the stretch. I think Thompson will have the most overall success out of these players, racking up 6-7 wins in the process and earning his way into the 2018 starting rotation.
ERA (Full-time, full-season pitchers only):
1.) Hector Neris: 2.45 ERA
2.) Vince Velasquez: 3.27 ERA
3.) Aaron Nola: 3.44 ERA
4.) Edubray Ramos: 3.51 ERA
- Hector Neris is awesome. He ended last season with a 2.58 ERA in 80.1 innings pitched, and with a role in which I think ultimately ends up being the closer role sometime this season, he is going to cement himself as one of the better young arms out of the ‘pen in the league. I so desperately wanted to give some more relievers some love here, but I think Jeanmar Gomez isn’t going to match his better parts of last season, and I think Joaquin Benoit and Pat Neshek will be traded. That leaves Edubray Ramos, who threw to the tune of a 3.83 ERA in 40 innings out of the Phillies’ bullpen last season. He’s got a live arm and pitched some big innings for the 2016 squad. I think his progression continues and he ends up being the primary set-up man for this team. He just edges out Jerad Eickhoff on this list, who I think improves slightly on his 3.65 ERA from 2016, but just misses beating Ramos’ 3.51 ERA. The two starters to make this list will end up being the anchors of this rotation for a long time, Nola and my boy Velasquez. Have I made it obvious enough that I expect big things from V.V.? Well, I just made it more obvious. He’s gonna be great. As for Nola, he will be, too. I just think it will take one more year. He had a 3.59 ERA during 13 starts in 2015, but last year his nagging injuries led to a 4.78 ERA in 20 starts. He is going to rebound and see his ERA look the best it has so far in his Major League career. I’ll also throw in that Jeremy Hellickson is going to enjoy a heck of a first half in my opinion, but as I mentioned before, he’s as good as gone.
Innings Pitched:
1.) Jerad Eickhoff: 188 IP
2.) Vince Velasquez: 168 IP
3.) Aaron Nola: 140 IP
4.) Jake Thompson: 85 IP
- I wanted to do Strikeouts here, but in this current game of baseball that we’ve got, innings are so important. Teams appreciate pitchers such as Eickhoff and Hellickson that can give a quality 6-inning start every time out over players such as Velasquez who you can bank on fanning plenty of batters but not necessarily making it deep into a game. Here’s the thing, though. I think that changes for Velasquez this year. He will be the best of both worlds. Jerad Eickhoff ended up with 33 starts in 2016. Look for Velasquez to get somewhere between the 27-30 start plateau. Eickhoff threw 197.1 innings in those 33 starts, so look for him to end up right around that number in 2017. I’ll give the edge to Eickhoff, solely because Velasquez will end up with somewhat of an innings limit. Nola will be looked at in the same light, as he will (PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE) stay healthy, but he will be dealt with lightly. The Phillies aren’t in win now mode quite just yet, so give these young arms one more year to be able to stay healthy and prove that they can be workhorses. The 4th spot goes to Jake Thompson, who in 10 starts in 2016 racked up 53.2 innings pitched. As I showed earlier, though, he will be the biggest beneficiary out of the young starters in Triple-A that will come up after the veteran arms get traded later on in the year, and he will throw some quality innings for the 2017 Phillies.
There you have it. Your 2017 Phillies leaders in some major statistics. I hope that I’m wrong about every single one. I hope each player surpasses my hopefully awful predictions. Maikel, hit 35 bombs and drive in 110. Tommy, hit 30 bombs and drive in 90. Odubel, hit .310 and steal 30 bags. Aaron, throw 200 innings and win 18 games. Please prove me wrong. It will make everyone in the City of Brotherly Love happy.
I’ll end this with some great news. When I’m writing next Thursday, the Phillies will be in full swing in Clearwater. Spring Training will officially be underway. I will be the happiest person on the planet. I love baseball. You love baseball. We all love baseball. WOOOOOO!
Photo: Buck Davidson (Via: Flickr)
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