Predicting the Philadelphia Phillies 2020 Starting Lineup
There are 27 days until the Phillies open their season on the road against the Cincinnati Reds. Not much is expected from the clubs in terms of winning for 2017, and even Pete Mackanin’s goal for the year is to finish around the .500 mark. So, as it seems to be another year in which us fans are left hoping that prospects develop into superstars and that starting pitchers survive the first inning without hurling 20-plus pitches or allowing 3-plus runs, there should be no issue with looking ahead to the “Phuture.” The Phuture is a mystical place where our beloved Phillies are contenders yet again, and the offense does not finish last in the major leagues in runs scored.
Spring training has been a sneak peek of the Phuture so far, and many of the auditions granted to minor leaguers looking to make the leap to the bigs have been taken full advantage of over the past couple weeks. Brock Stassi, for example, is a 27-year-old minor league veteran earning himself an MLB spot. 2015 second-round draftee Scott Kingery is contributing to the developing logjam at middle infield within the organization. Jesumel Valentin is another second baseman bulldozing his way into the conversation for the second baseman of the future. There is plenty of young talent in the farm, and spring training is putting the depth on display.
But in 2020, when the Phillies are projected to become a playoff team in the National League, which players will be taking the field daily in Philadelphia? (All ages based on 2020 numbers.)
Catcher: Jorge Alfaro, 26
Cameron Rupp will be 31-years-old come 2017 spring training, and although he has not been given an opportunity to be a full-time catcher in Philadelphia, there is not much of a ceiling offensively for the veteran. Andrew Knapp would be the other candidate within the organization for this spot, but he can not match the potential of Alfaro.
However, the switch-hitting Knapp is in line for a spot on the major league roster for the upcoming season. Rupp will be the starter, so he is expected to come off the bench; if Knapp is successful in his first big league run, there could be a starting spot awaiting him. Alfaro’s potential in both aspects of the game make him an intriguing prospect and the lead man to be behind the plate for the future.
Alfaro batted .285 and clobbered 15 home runs for Double-A Reading last season. He struggled during a short stint with the Phillies after Carlos Ruiz was traded, but only received 16 at-bats. As Andrew Knapp possibly joins the big league bench, Alfaro will be the everyday catcher for Lehigh Valley in Triple-A.
First Base: Maikel Franco, 27
Maikel Franco has the potential to be a franchise cornerstone in Philadelphia. He has to work out some inconsistencies, which include his impatience at the plate, struggles to spread the ball to different parts of the field, and sheer inability to recognize a 1-2 curveball in the dirt from a pitcher and think to himself, “Wow, that’s a pretty bad pitch. I’m just gonna let that one go and hope the next pitch is a better one to hit.”
Franco has also struggled a bit at third base. A move to first would not only make room for a superstar third baseman signing but also enable Maikel to focus more on hitting than fielding. The transfer to first base would take some work, but it could pay dividends for the development of a player with loads of power potential.
If new hitting coach Matt Stairs can force a new approach at the plate onto Franco, the Dominican could be a perennial 35-plus home run hitter.
Second Base: Freddy Galvis, 30
Freddy Galvis deserves so much more respect than he receives from not only the media but also Phillies fans. Although his hitting numbers were not up to par in 2016 (he finished last in all of Major League Baseball in OBP), Freddy played another great defensive season at shortstop. He also clubbed 20 home runs. His glove should be enough to win the second baseman job after Crawford is promoted, and the middle infield duo will be amongst the best in baseball defensively.
There is much to be improved upon is Freddy’s game if he wants to be a part of this 2020 lineup. His batting average and on-base percentage are key in the Phillies’ rise from the bottom of the league in terms of offensive production. The numbers won’t have to be elite, but they can not be horrendous. Expect a big 2017 from the Venezuelan.
Third Base: Manny Machado, 27
“The Philadelphia Phillies have signed 3B Manny Machado to a 10-year contract worth $300 million.” The lineup will need a spark to overcome the Chicago Cubs and counter the loaded New York Mets rotation. Machado is already a superstar at 24-years-old, and he is set to become a free agent after the 2018 season. A gold glove fielder with 40 home run potential? Get out the checkbook, Klentak.
It’s crazy hypothetical, but if the Phillies have been saving money for anything, it would be a player of Machado’s caliber. Barring the team-friendly deal that Odubel Herrera signed this offseason, there is no money on the Phillies’ books past 2018 (besides the low-salary rookie deals: Franco, Aaron Nola, etc.).
We all remember when Ruben Amaro, Jr. put Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Roy Oswalt, and Cole Hamels on the same team. Some weird things have happened to the Phillies in the past, so don’t dismiss a superstar signing too quickly, especially if the Yankees decide they’d rather have Harper.
Shortstop: JP Crawford, 25
If JP Crawford isn’t a part of the lineup by 2020, the Phillies have some larger concerns than a playoff race.
Left Field: Odubel Herrera, 28
The 2016 all-star had a rough second half of the season, but he was rewarded for his .286 batting average with a 5-year, $30.5 million deal. The question is not whether or not he will be a part of the Phillies lineup for years to come, but rather where he will be played, as the dearth of outfield prospects make their way to the cusp of the major leagues.
El Torito will begin the 2017 season as the everyday center fielder, but he will be playing left field for Venezuela in the World Baseball Classic. If he finds his defensive niche in left, Herrera could be on the move. He was mediocre in center field last season, and Mackanin had Odubel practice in different places in the outfield during the end of last season.
Herrera is the star of the current day Phillies, and if he can consistently play the way he played throughout the first half of last season, the Phillies will have their next great outfielder.
Center Field: Aaron Altherr, 29
After a 2016 season during which Altherr played only 57 games and hit below the Mendoza Line, he will look to bounce back as the Phillies fourth outfielder. He has the athletic ability to play the entire outfield, but his speed should earn him a job in center field at some point. Although he will be coming off the bench, 2017 will be the German’s first full season in the big leagues. Hopefully he takes large strides in his development, as he has not shown much offensive promise to this point.
Altherr’s defensive potential has been his calling card as a prospect, and if he can become a threat at the plate, the outfield dilemma will become that much easier for Pete Mackanin.
Right Field: Nick Williams, 26
Williams narrowly earns the benefit of the doubt over players such as Dylan Cozens, Roman Quinn, Mickey Moniak, and Tyler Goeddel, amongst others. After a disastrous second half of the season in Triple-A, scouts are beginning to forget about the former top-100 prospect. However, Lehigh Valley’s new manager is Reading’s old manager, Dusty Wathan. Nick Williams thrived with the Fightin’ Phils after being traded to the Philadelphia farm system.
The outfield is by far the most unpredictable aspect of the future due to the current makeup of the organization, which is outfield heavy in both the farm system and major league roster. Williams has the most upside of arguably all the outfielders, and his entire career with the Phillies will depend upon how he plays in his second season of Triple-A ball. His .258 batting average for the Iron Pigs in 2016 was not worthy of a call-up, and he knows that consistency will lead to promotion.
It will be exciting to see what the Phillies lineup will be like when the team makes its return to competitiveness and contention. However, until then, there is only a team hoping to win 81 games to root for. Don’t lose faith, though, because there is a bright Phuture in Philadelphia.
Be on the lookout for predictions in regards to the 2020 starting pitching rotation next week.
Photo by Bryan Green (via Flickr)
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