Nick Pivetta: The Phillies’ Second Ace?
Tuesday afternoon, amidst Manny Machado’s contract agreement with the San Diego Padres, Phillies’ manager Gabe Kapler announced his starting pitchers for the Phillies’ first Grapefruit League games.
Friday at TB: Cole Irvin
Saturday vs PIT: Enyel De Los Santos
Sunday at DET: Drew Anderson
Monday vs DET: JoJo Romero
Tuesday at NY: Ranger Suarez
As the Bryce Harper free agency saga continues into the final days of February, the Phillies are continuing to prepare for the regular season. Kapler and the team will continue to work as scheduled as they stress the “little things,” such as baserunning, during full squad workouts.
With all the media buzz this offseason regarding Harper, Machado, and other big-name players, there is one player poised for a breakout year: Phillies’ starting pitcher Nick Pivetta.
The 26-year-old, 6-foot-5, right-handed pitcher has been off the radar this offseason. The official Twitter account of the MLB mentioned Pivetta in a group of potential Cy Young candidates with other players such as Jameson Taillon and Mike Foltynewicz.
There is no doubt that Pivetta struggled with giving up an abundance of runs in one or two-inning stretches in 2018, but the Phillies’ defense did not help him out one bit. Rhys Hoskins, Cesar Hernandez, Jorge Alfaro, and Carlos Santana all committed the most errors in the National League at their positions in 2018. The Phillies’ front office upgraded their 29th-ranked defense with a handful of signings and trades that will provide proper support to their pitching staff.
Baseball Reference’s projections for Pivetta in 2019 are 8-11 and 4.76 ERA, which seem very conservative, as he is poised for a breakout season. There are a few stats that suggest he is primed to break out. Pivetta increased his innings pitched by 31 innings from 2017 to 2018, up to a respectable total of 164.0 IP in 2018. His WHIP has fallen from 1.511 to 1.305 over the last two seasons, while his SO/9 has increased from 9.5 to 10.3. Nick was actually 5th in the National League in SO/9 in 2018, ahead of teammate Aaron Nola (8th), and was 8th in total strikeouts with 188.
The recipe for Pivetta’s success will hinge on the continued success of his curveball. In 2017, his curveball usage was 15.3%, opponents hit .274, and had a 12.0% whiff. 2018 saw an increase in usage of 21.8%; opponents hit .208, and had a 15.8% whiff. His curveball became a lethal strikeout tool in 2018. If Pivetta’s trajectory goes the same way as Arizona Diamondbacks pitcher Robbie Ray, who had a great season in 2017, going 15-5, 2.89 ERA, 162.0 IP, 218 SO, 1.154 WHIP, 12.1 SO/9, the Phillies starting rotation will be well-balanced from top to bottom.
Pivetta’s development in 2019 as a second ace to Aaron Nola will play a key role in the Phillies’ quest to win the National League East.
Photo Credit: Eric Hartline USA Today
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