What to Make of Aaron Nola’s Slow Start to 2019
This is not an Aaron Nola regression season – this is an Aaron Nola reality check season. What Aaron Nola was able to accomplish in 2018 hasn’t happened since Steve Carlton in 1980 and might not ever happen again for a Phillies pitcher. Philadelphia fans need to realize that Nola may never pitch as well as he did in 2018.
Wednesday, May 13th was another grueling start for Nola during a cold, rain-delayed, night game in Philly. Luckily, the team played their best baseball of the season to salvage a 7-4 victory from the Brewers. The Brewers jumped out to an early lead, as Nola struggled with his command. Nola’s pitch breakdown on the evening was 41.7% fastballs, 41.7% curveballs, and 16.7% changeups.
The fact of the matter is that Nola is struggling to command his pitches. His 2019 season hasn’t seen a dip in velocity, which is a sign that he isn’t injured. According to Fangraphs, Nola’s fastball velocity through nine appearances is actually up to 92.5 mph, while his career average is 91.6 mph. One of the biggest differences this year is Nola’s decrease in fastball usage. Phillies pitching coach, Chris Young, could be trusting analytics too much by increasing the number of curveballs and changeups thrown by the Phillies’ ace.
Nola needs to trust his fastball again and be able to locate it properly. He has thrown his fastball only 47.4% of the time in 2019, down from his career average of 53.6%. His ability to cause swinging strikes is down from 13% in 2018 to 9% in 2019. His total strike percentage is down from 67% to 62% as well. Nola’s inability to trust his fastball has hitters able to predict what he is going to throw. Because Nola has been so predictable in 2019, he already has three outings in which he has gone 4.0 innings or less. He had one in all of 2018, which still resulted in a win.
It is very difficult to tell through nine starts, but Nola has seemed to struggle with command at least partly due to weather. As the baseball season approaches the start of summer, hopefully, Nola can replicate his best start of the year in St. Louis on May 7th, which was notable in the mid-70s weather-wise throughout the game. He went 6.0 innings, allowed 3 hits, 1 ER, 1 walk, and had 7 strikeouts.
So far, through the first 40 games of the season, the Phillies are 24-16 with a +42 run differential. Through 40 games in 2018, the Phillies had an identical record and run differential. Pat Neshek came out and said they have yet to play their best baseball.
If the Phillies want a taste of playoff baseball in 2019, it starts with Aaron Nola. The Phillies will need their ace in his best form come playoff time.
Photo Credits: NBC Sports
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