The Phillies Must Be Smart at the Trade Deadline
The July 31st Trade Deadline is today at 4:00 PM. And even though the Phillies have made some small moves in the days leading up to it, fans are waiting for a big splash. After all, the “stupid money” comment led many to believe that it was World Series or bust this year.
While it might not be popular, and General Manager Matt Klentak will get skewered on talk radio, the big splash is not the move that the Phillies need to make.
Let’s start with the obvious. This team is not good enough to win the World Series this year. You could argue that trading for Madison Bumgarner or Trevor Bauer would give the rotation a much-needed boost, but is it enough to put them over the top?
(Editor’s note: Bauer went to the Cincinnati Reds on Tuesday night in a shocker. He is off the table. However, incumbent Reds’ pitchers Alex Wood and Tanner Roark are available as a result).
Probably not.
Just look at how the team fared in June against the top two teams in the National League, the Atlanta Braves and Los Angeles Dodgers. Even with MadBum pitching once every five days, the performance against those clubs didn’t portray a team that was ready to pass the big dogs.
Bumgarner is having a decent season this year, with a 3.74 ERA. For comparison’s sake, Aaron Nola has a 3.72 ERA, while the other Phillies’ starters for the majority of the season (so no Drew Smyly or Jason Vargas) are all over 4.50.
Bumgarner is a free agent after the season – would he re-sign in Philadelphia if traded here? Is that worth the risk and loss of prospects for a rental?
Again, probably not.
Then there is the loss of prospects. The Mets, in acquiring Marcus Stroman from the Blue Jays, traded away their number six and seven prospects. To pry Bumgarner away from the San Francisco Giants, the Phils would need to trade better players than one would presume. Alec Bohm? Adonis Medina? Adam Haseley? It’s not worth losing any of them.
Bohm is your future starting third baseman, and you could see him as early as next season. Haseley has been great recently for the Big League club, and with Odubel Herrera’s issues off the field – and inconsistent play on the field – it’s looking more and more likely that Haseley has a spot in the starting nine next year.
Medina is the Phillies’ top pitching prospect after they traded away Sixto Sanchez this offseason for JT Realmuto. It’s not wise to get rid of him when it’s been abundantly clear this season that the Phillies have no starting pitching depth.
While the Phillies have had a rough go of prospects lately – Dominic Brown anyone? – this group just feels different. It would be a shame to trade them away for a player that may not stick around on a team that will find it very tough to win in the postseason this year.
The best decision for Klentak and company to make is to make small, incremental moves – like the Vargas trade, and Drew Smyly – and hope that’s enough to get the Phillies into October and give them some postseason experience. Who knows, maybe they could put together a magical run if that happens.
But the Phillies should be neither buyers nor sellers. Make small moves that provide value in multiple ways. After all, the trade for Vargas pushed the struggling Zach Eflin into the bullpen, a move that shored up both the starting rotation and ‘pen at once.
This team has a lot of talent on it still. Bryce Harper, Jean Segura, and Realmuto are all having down years offensively. There’s reason to believe that they will all get back to their career averages next year – when they possibly have different coaches – and that will lift the club.
But for now, it’s not worth trading away the farm. Even with a splashy move, the Phillies don’t have what it takes to go all the way.
Featured Image: @SInow
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