Predicting the Phillies’ 2020 Opening Day Roster
The 2019 MLB Postseason is just underway and, for the eighth straight season, the Philadelphia Phillies have failed to make the playoffs.
The season started off with such promise, but by the All-Star Break, it was filled with a lot of disgust and anger. There’s been a lot of looking back at what went wrong, but let’s look forward.
We know there are going to be a lot of changes to the makeup of the team this offseason. It’s inevitable if the Phillies want to keep up with the Atlanta Braves and Washington Nationals in their own division.
With free agency and offseason trades still a little bit away, what would a Phillies 2020 Opening Day, 26-man roster* look like? Let’s dive in.
(*In March of 2019, Major League Baseball announced a slew of rule changes, among them, increasing the roster from 25 to 26 from 2020 moving forward).
Catchers
- J.T. Realmuto
- Deivy Grullon
Let’s start with the obvious. Realmuto is the best catcher in baseball and should be signed to a lucrative contract extension this offseason. He’s going to catch most of the games in 2020 (he made 130 starts behind the plate in 2019), so the backup isn’t going to see a lot of time. Still, they need someone better than Andrew Knapp, who hit only .213 in 2019. Grullon is young, and the Phils might want him to start more in AAA. But they could use his bat off the bench when they want to give Realmuto a break.
Infielders
- Rhys Hoskins (1B)
- Scott Kingery (2B)
- Jean Segura (SS)
- Mike Moustakas (3B)
- Brad Miller (Bench)
- Phil Gosselin (Bench)
It’s already guaranteed that Hoskins and Segura will be the starters at first and short respectively. Where things get interesting is at second and third. Cesar Hernandez is the longest-tenured Phillie at this time, but his lack of hustle and defensive miscues – mostly from mental errors in the field – combined with Kingery’s continued development, spell out the end for this Phillie. Kingery needs to have a position, and it’s time for him to go back to his natural spot at second. Hernandez will be used as trade bait.
The same goes for Franco. It seems like every year is finally going to be the year he figures it out and becomes the player the organization thought he could be. But every year he proves them wrong. It’s time for an upgrade, and this is finally the year the Phillies sign the guy they should have two years ago, Mike Moustakas (assuming his mutual option with the Milwaukee Brewers doesn’t get picked up).
Moustakas is a huge upgrade over Franco, hitting .254/.329/.516 with 35 home runs and 87 RBI in 2019. If he signs elsewhere, Josh Donaldson could be an option, coming off a great season after signing a one-year deal with the Atlanta Braves this past offseason.
Whoever they get to play third, it needs to be on a short-term deal, as rookie Alec Bohm is waiting in the wings. That’s why going after Anthony Rendon does not make sense for this club. Bohm wouldn’t be a bad option to start at third right away next year, but the Phillies have to be prepared for him to struggle some since he’s never played a game above AA, and they need to be patient when that happens.
For a bench spot, the Phillies need to re-sign impending free-agent Brad Miller. He’s shown he has pop and his personality seems to fit in with the club and the city. For the last bench spot, why don’t we say it’s Gosselin for now (assuming the Phillies re-sign him too)? He was a relatively effective pinch hitter for them, and they know what they’re getting. If not him, maybe the Phillies will get a bench guy in a trade with Hernandez or Franco.
Outfielders
- Andrew McCutchen (LF)
- Adam Haseley (CF)
- Bryce Harper (RF)
- Jay Bruce (Bench)
- Roman Quinn (Bench)
This is pretty cut and dry. McCutchen will be back from his injury and manning left field for the Phillies in 2020. Harper is obviously in right. Odubel Herrera is most likely a goner after his legal problems this year. Haseley proved he has the defensive skills to play center, and his bat is only going to get better as he develops. Anyone other than him in center would be a mistake.
Bruce is still under contract for 2020, and the Seattle Mariners are paying most of his contract. He provides a lefty home run threat off the bench. Quinn has so much potential, but he’s struggled to stay healthy throughout his career. If he can make it through Spring Training unscathed, his speed would be a huge asset off the bench in 2020.
Pitchers
- Aaron Nola (SP)
- Madison Bumgarner (SP)
- Cole Hamels (SP)
- Jake Arrieta (SP)
- Zach Eflin (SP)
- Hector Neris (RP)
- Adam Morgan (RP)
- Vince Velasquez (RP)
- Jose Alvarez (RP)
- Ranger Suarez (RP)
- Will Smith (RP)
- Will Harris (RP)
- JD Hammer (RP)
Ah, the pitching staff. Where to begin here?
Let’s start with the locks for the starting rotation – Nola, Arrieta, and Eflin. Nola, even though he had a down 2019 by his standards, has the potential to carry this staff (he will need help from a top arm though). Arrieta is still under contract and it would be impossible for the Phillies to move. Eflin pitched well enough down the stretch (a 2.83 ERA in his last seven starts) that he deserves a rotation spot. And, after all, the front office can’t get rid of all of the starters from this year.
After pursuing Gerrit Cole but losing out on his services to either the Los Angeles Angels or New York Yankees, the Phillies will sign Bumgarner to be the ace of the staff. They need a big arm, and Bumgarner is a pretty good consolation prize in the Cole sweepstakes. A Hamels reunion makes sense as he enters the twilight of his career. His familiarity with the club and winning make him a fit for Philadelphia. Coming off an oblique injury that caused him to struggle in the second half of 2019, expect Hamels to sign a three-year deal worth between $45-$60 million.
For the bullpen. Neris, Morgan, Alvarez, and Suarez are all locks based on performance and who’s still under contract. Velasquez would be a perfect bullpen guy and was moved there for a brief moment earlier this season. His time as a starter needs to be over, and he can make a name for himself as a solid reliever.
Two of the bigger free-agent relievers out there are Will Smith and Will Harris. Will the Phillies go after them after signing free-agent relievers the past couple of offseasons, only to see them get injured and miss most of the season? They can’t let past events like that cause them to make the mistake of not taking the chance to upgrade the bullpen with at least one of these guys.
For the final spot, look for JD Hammer to take it. He’s young, energetic, and has decent stuff. He was up in the Majors earlier this year, and with a solid spring, he has a real good chance of starting 2020 in the bigs.
This upcoming offseason is crucial for the Phillies. With a 26-man roster like above, the Phillies might finally make the postseason again in 2020.
Photo: @Phillies
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