NCAAF PREVIEW – Week 9: Will History Repeat Itself when Penn State heads to East Lansing?
When I looked at the Penn State schedule many months ago, before a snap was taken, a whiteout was scheduled and Tommy Stevens was still the quarterback, one game jumped out.
At that time, I determined five games I thought would give the Nittany Lions fits. Maryland (obviously I’m an idiot and I understand if you don’t want to read further), Iowa, Michigan, Ohio State, but above all, the one game that struck fear into my heart – Michigan State.
It’s not that I thought Sparty would be a particularly tough team this season. Yes, quarterback Brian Lewerke is in what feels like his 10th season at Michigan State, and Mark Dantonio is an elite coach, but what scared me most is history.
The past is a pretty good indicator of the future, just ask any of my degenerate gambler friends, and in the recent past, Michigan State has owned Penn State.
The last two times these teams squared off, the Spartans came out on top. In a rain-soaked 2017 game, Michigan
State knocked off Penn State 27-24 in East Lansing, and then last year, Sparty took the Nittany Lions down in Happy Valley 21-17.
There was no rhyme or reason for these games, Penn State was the significantly more talented team in each. Michigan State just made plays when Penn State didn’t. That, and in each case Penn State was coming off a crushing loss to Ohio State. This go around, not only is Penn State more talented, but they also have momentum having defeated Iowa and
Michigan in back-to-back weeks.
The running game is still a total crapshoot, and I don’t want to embarrass myself again by guessing who if anyone will get work. I still think Noah Cain is the best back of the group, especially at the end of the game.
Cain could be used as a closer if Penn State is up by less than a touchdown late. Regardless, Penn State needs to establish and maintain a running game throughout this contest.
To put themselves in a position to lead late, Sean Clifford will need to play better than he has the past two weeks. He’s done enough to get the win, but just enough.
There is a sector of the Penn State fanbase who don’t think Clifford has done a good job thus far. I was unaware anyone thought that until recently, this may be because he has exceeded my expectations for a first-year starter. Clifford does need to get Daniel George and/or Justin Shorter more involved, and he needs to get more accurate on short throws. The kid is 7-0 with 16 touchdowns and 2 picks so let’s cut him some slack, ok?
Lewerke is similar to Michigan quarterback Shae Patterson in that he may not be the fleetest of the foot, but he can extend plays with his legs when needed.
The Penn State front four has recorded only 3 sacks in the last two games, which is honestly dreadful for this group lead by Yetur Gross-Matos and Shaka Toney. They’ve been able to get to the doorstep a few times, and not kick in the door. On Saturday, taking Lewerke down could mean the difference between a win and another crushing loss.
Most players on this Penn State roster have not beaten Michigan State.
Yes, James Franklin is always preaching one game at a time, but there is no doubt some players will have revenge on their minds.
Michigan State, on the other hand, is a program in decay. They have had six players enter the transfer portal during this season, rumors are swirling that Dantonio may have had enough of East Lansing and this may be his final season.
With so much turmoil, Penn State would be wise to capitalize on early opportunities, build a lead, and hope a dejected Spartan team rolls over.
Prediction
Penn State 20 – Michigan State 17
Penn State hasn’t made it that simple all year, and they won’t come Saturday.
Football is a weird sport, and this is a weird game. Penn State fans will be white-knuckling this one to the very end.
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