NCAAF PREVIEW – Week 11: Penn State Looks to Avoid Gopher Trap
In a surprising twist, the College Football Playoff selection committee ranked Penn State number 4 in their first rankings of the season on Tuesday night.
Big 10 foe Ohio State was ranked first followed by LSU and Alabama.
Ohio State jumping into first place only shines a brighter light on the November 23rd matchup between the Nittany Lions and Buckeyes, but Penn State has some business at hand to take care of first. Namely the Minnesota Golden Gophers this Saturday.
Yes, we know they have a huge offensive line.
Minnesota comes into this game at 8-0. They’ve played very well against mediocre teams, and the CFP committee recognized that by ranking them number 17 in the first poll. Minnesota has to be pissed off about this, which doesn’t bode well for Penn State. An angry Minnesota team, 8-0 for the first time in decades, and at home sounds like a recipe for an upset.
But do the Golden Gophers have the firepower to hang with Penn State?
Anchored by 400lb right tackle Daniel Faalele, the offensive line full of Paul Bunyans is a strength for Minnesota. Quarterback Tanner Morgan doesn’t need the line to hold very long as he is a quick decision-maker and accurate thrower.
The Nittany Lions have two of the most talented defensive ends, Shaka Toney and Yetur Gross-Matos, in the Big 10, and speed off the edges that Minnesota has not seen this season. That being said, Penn State only has 5 total sacks in their last three games, which is underwhelming for such a talented group. Getting after Morgan and keeping him out of rhythm will be a key for Penn State.
The mammoth O-line has also done a phenomenal job blocking for running back Rodney Smith. The senior is averaging 5.8 yards per carry, and has 889 rushing yards already this season. Minnesota as a team averages 204.5 rushing yards per game, while Penn State allows just 68.4. You don’t need to be Joe Paterno to see where this game will be won, or lost. One of the key reasons Minnesota is 8-0 is because they are able to get solid yardage on first down and often stay out of third-down altogether.
Penn State will need to figure out a way to get Minnesota into the 3rd and long situations. Coach P.J. Fleck, who just signed a contract extension, should have the Gophers confident and determined at home to start the game, but Penn State can put a stop to that quickly.
Who will step up in the receiving game?
Minnesota’s defense looked very beatable in their first four games of the season, but they have tightened the screws and have been stellar in their last three. Holding Nebraska and Rutgers to 7 and Maryland to 10, the Gophers have seemingly improved each week.
Of course, much like the selection committee did, you need to take the quality of the opponent into consideration. Penn State has a far more explosive offense than those groups, and it will be hard for Minnesota to be prepared for it.
Pat Freiermuth is coming off a 3 touchdown performance against Michigan State and KJ Hamler had 5 catches for 57 yards and a score himself, but aside from those two, the passing game has floundered. Jahan Dotson, who looked to be a solid number 2 behind Hamler only has 17 catches on the year, and the very highly touted freshman Justin Shorter has been even more disappointing with 9 catches.
This is a big-time now, Penn State is in a legitimate position to play for a national title, but they will need someone to step up and catch some passes to do so. The woes are a mix of Sean Clifford not seeing the open man at all times, the receivers not creating separation, and play-calling issues. Minnesota is only allowing 283.3 yards per game, so Penn State will need to utilize every weapon in their arsenal to get points on the board.
Prediction
Will this be Maryland all over again or will it look more like Iowa? I don’t see Penn State winning 59-0, but I also don’t think it will a close slugfest either.
Penn State 31 Minnesota 17
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