A Hypothetical: With No 2020 Season, What Do the Phillies Do?
It’s been a little over a month since the sports world came to a grinding halt due to the coronavirus pandemic, and since then, there have been reports of numerous ways Major League Baseball is planning to come back when they can safely do so.
The all-Arizona League plan. The Grapefruit League and Cactus Leagues with radical division realignment plan. The Japan plan. All of these ideas have their flaws, but they all give us a way to have meaningful baseball in 2020.
But for a minute, let’s assume the worst: that there will be no baseball played this season. One positive take is that gives those new to betting more time to prep by mulling over this baseball guide. It covers all the basics and even baseball futures, which most sportsbooks are still accepting wagers on.
What once seemed far-fetched a month ago now seems increasingly likely. Will players voluntarily isolate themselves from their families for months? Will fans show up to the ballparks when they have the green light to do so? How late is this season allowed to start/end without sacrificing the integrity of the 2021 season? While the answers to all of those questions are complicated, one thing is clear – the longer this thing goes on, the more likely it is that the 2020 season will be scrapped.
So again, let’s assume this heartbreaking, gut-wrenching, catastrophic event happens. Major League Baseball and the Players’ Association have already agreed that in the event there is no season, players will accrue the same service time that they did in 2019.
That’s good for the players, but it creates some interesting dilemmas for the Phillies to consider when constructing their roster for the 2021 season.
Chief among them is what happens with the best catcher in baseball, J.T. Realmuto. He’ll be a free agent this offseason, regardless of what happens with the 2020 campaign. It still seems like a no-brainer that the front office signs him to a long-term deal. But would the lack of a season impact their ability to make it as lucrative as it once could have been? Their pockets should be deep enough to make sure that isn’t an issue, and the stadium might be packed next season with fans eager to finally get their fill of baseball, but one never knows. If they don’t re-sign him, season or not, it would go down as General Manager Matt Klentak’s biggest failure.
Shortstop Didi Gregorious signed a one-year deal this offseason. Would he be allowed to walk without ever playing a game in red pinstripes? I think the answer to that question comes down to the answer of this next question; what do the Phillies do with third base prospect Alec Bohm? He’ll be 24 next season, but still won’t have experience above AA Reading. But he had a great spring, and that might give the Phillies confidence that they can count on him next season, even without playing this year.
If Bohm is part of the team’s plans for next season, count Gregorious out. Unless, of course, the team trades Jean Segura, but I don’t see that happening.
Then you have the most interesting player of all, Jake Arrieta. The Phillies have a team option for $20 million apiece for the 2021 and 2022 seasons. Arrieta hasn’t lived up to the contract he signed a few years ago, and is seen as a pretty big disappointment in the eyes of many fans. But Arrieta was playing hurt his first two years in Philly, and said going into this season he felt healthier than he had in a long time.
If he were to have a good showing in 2020, the Phillies would exercise that option. But with no season, and only years of decline to base their decision on, it becomes a trickier option to pick up. But the alternatives aren’t much better. The upcoming class of free agent pitchers isn’t the strongest – Trevor Bauer, Marcus Stroman, and Mike Minor would be the top three – and would carry the same concerns as re-signing Arrieta.
On top of that, the Phillies don’t have many internal options besides the human question marks of Nick Pivetta and Vince Velasquez, and prospect Spencer Howard, who would fall into the same boat as Bohm. I think the best option is to pick up the option, and see what you can get from Arrieta in 2021, with over a year of health propelling him.
This is certainly an unprecedented time for everyone. And while things are precarious for the Phillies, at least they’re not as bad as the Dodgers, who gave up a lot to trade for Mookie Betts, only to have the possibility that he becomes a free agent this offseason without ever playing a game for Los Angeles.
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