The Stat Problem and the Clouded View of Number 11
I’m tired of stats.
There, I said it: I’m tired of the numbers.
If you want to prove that a player isn’t as good as anyone else, just dig a little and I’m sure there is a statistic out there to support that claim. The one stat that drives me insane is a quarterback’s wins against teams with winning records.
This statistic comes up a lot in the wild Twitter frenzy of those that are ‘for or against’ Carson Wentz.
According to some statistics, Carson Wentz is 9-14 against teams with winning records.
Alone, it’s almost a full season of losses, and that is not a good look. Tom Brady can boast a 70-40 record, Roethlisberger 51-39, and Russell Wilson 26-21. The three things these guys have in common is that they are likely walking into the Hall of Fame.
But wait!
There are a few other potential Hall of Famers out there on the other end of the scale Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, and (even though it’s still early) Patrick Mahomes all have a losing record against teams with a winning record.
2016 // Week 3
In 2016 as a rookie, the first team Carson Wentz played with a winning record was the Pittsburgh Steelers in week 3 of the 2016 season. The Steelers came in with a 2-0 record and averaged about 400yds of offense in their first 2 games. They came into the Linc as 3.5pt favorites, but the Eagles outscored them 34-3. Carson was 23 of 31 for 301 yards, two touchdowns, and zero interceptions.
2018 // Week 4
In 2018, the Eagles were on the road against the 3-1 Tennessee Titans in just Carson’s second start of the season. In a loss that came down to overtime, Carson threw for 348 yards, two touchdowns, and a 66% completion percentage. Though the final score was 26-23 in the Titans favor, this game was not lost on the ability of Carson Wentz.
2019 // Week 4
Finally, in 2019, the Eagles were at Lambeau Field to face the Packers in primetime. The Packers had a solid 3-0 start to their season while the Eagles were 1-3 coming off two tough losses to Atlanta and Detroit. Had there been a little help from the wide receivers, both of those games could easily have been Ws.
In the win, Wentz wasn’t remarkable, he had an unusually low 160-yard game, but that came with three touchdowns and no interceptions. He also did not record a sack or a fumble.
I chose these three games because they support the narrative that despite a losing record against winning teams, Carson Wentz is a good quarterback. To my earlier point, anyone else can go through the game log and pick out a few games that would paint the opposite picture. It’s proof that yelling about numbers isn’t going to get a clear picture, it’s just going to cloud the picture we already have. We cannot depend on statistics alone to pass judgment and more than likely we won’t be able to paint an accurate picture of Wentz’s success until he’s no longer wearing the midnight green. For now, I’m all in.
Win or lose, the result of these games does not rest solely on Carson Wentz. In all three he put up ‘the numbers,’ and sometimes it ended in an Eagles win, and sometimes it was a loss.
I won’t remember all of those 14 losses against teams with winning records, but I will remember the guy who came out of a pile of defenders to launch the ball downfield for a touchdown. I will also remember that unlikely touchdown passes to Corey Clement in 2017 and Miles Sanders in 2019.
Don’t let the numbers ruin the game because there are real people (that’s right more than just one) out there clawing it out for the win.
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