What Would It Take for the Phillies to Land Francisco Lindor?
Who would the Phillies have to send to Cleveland in order to trade for All-Star shortstop Francisco Lindor?
Since the offseason began, many writers and fans have brought up the possibility of the Phillies trading for Francisco Lindor. In contrast, many others are skeptical about the Phillies acquiring Cleveland’s superstar shortstop. They don’t believe that the Phillies have the prospects to make the deal happen.
So that got me thinking…Would it be possible for the Phillies to make this trade?
I’m not interested in whether or not this trade is likely (it isn’t) or a good idea for the team (it’s not). I’m simply curious what the Phillies could offer, and whether it would be enough to land a generational talent like Lindor.
The only comparable trade the Phillies have made in the last decade was when they sent Sixto Sanchez and Jorge Alfaro to Miami in exchange for J.T. Realmuto. J.T. Realmuto was arguably the best catcher in baseball, and, similarly, Francisco Lindor is arguably the best shortstop in baseball.
However, there are many important differences to consider. While J.T. Realmuto had two seasons left of team control, Lindor only has one. On the other hand, Lindor has a longer track record of success and comes with a higher upside than Realmuto. When the Phillies traded for Realmuto, he had accumulated 11.5 career fWAR. Lindor’s current career fWAR is 28.9.
Thus, while I think these two trade situations are rather similar, Lindor will likely cost the Phillies more than Realmuto did. Not only is he a better all-around player, but there should be more competition for his services since so few teams are willing to spend in free agency this year. Furthermore, he is simply a far more valuable player than any of the free agents or trade candidates who are available this offseason.
Regardless, I’ll use the Realmuto deal as a starting point to figure out what the Phillies would need to offer Cleveland in exchange for Lindor.
Back in 2019, Sixto Sanchez was a consensus top-50 prospect in baseball, and he looked like a potential ace starting pitcher. Jorge Alfaro was a major league-ready catcher with a great deal of untapped potential.
How could the Phillies match that offer this offseason?
Unfortunately, the Phillies no longer have any prospects with Sixto Sanchez’s pedigree. Their current top prospect is Spencer Howard, who never had Sixto’s upside and whose stock went way down after a poor Major League debut in 2020.
However, the Phillies do have a former top prospect who is still young, cost-controlled, and full of upside: Alec Bohm. Bohm isn’t as valuable as Sanchez (that tells you just how good Sixto Sanchez is), but there is no way the Phillies could trade for Francisco Lindor without including Alec Bohm in the deal. While Cleveland already has a third baseman (MVP Finalist Jose Ramirez), they could certainly slot Bohm in at first base or DH.
The equivalent player to Jorge Alfaro that the Phillies could offer Cleveland is Scott Kingery. Like Alfaro, he’s a young, cost-controlled player who has struggled at the Major League level but still has a great deal of potential. Just as Alfaro immediately become Miami’s starting catcher, Kingery could jump in at shortstop for Cleveland.
Our trade package isn’t done yet. Bohm and Kingery are not as appealing an offer as Sanchez and Alfaro were, and Lindor will command a better trade package than Realmuto, not a worse one. The Phillies would need to throw in at least one more highly attractive prospect for Cleveland to even consider this deal.
The only three players I think could work are Spencer Howard, Bryson Stott, and Mick Abel. In this scenario, the Phillies are already sending over a shortstop, so I’ll rule out Stott. The Phillies are counting on Howard to be a part of their 2021 starting rotation, so I’ll rule him out too. Thus, we’re left with Mick Abel.
As a result, my final offer looks like this: Alec Bohm, Scott Kingery, and Mick Abel in exchange for Francisco Lindor.
Would Cleveland accept this trade? Certainly not at this point in the offseason. This is the best the Phillies can offer, but Cleveland would absolutely hold out for something better from another team. Remember, the Marlins only accepted the Phillies’ offer for Realmuto because it was late in the offseason and they weren’t getting the kind of offers they’d hoped for.
However, if February rolls around and Lindor hasn’t been traded yet, I think this offer could get things done. Cleveland is desperate to shed payroll and get something for Lindor before he walks in free agency.
Thus, I’ve come to the conclusion that, yes, the Phillies theoretically could acquire Francisco Lindor. Nevertheless, as I wrote at the beginning of this article, I do not recommend that the team makes this trade. Simply put, I think there are better ways to improve the Phillies.
Lindor will earn about $21 million next season. That’s a bargain for a player of his caliber, but the Phillies would be better off keeping Bohm and spending that money elsewhere.
With that kind of money, the Phillies could sign Didi Gregorius and still have cash to spare. While Gregorius is nowhere near as talented as Lindor, the combination of Gregorius and Bohm could be just as good as the combination of Lindor and whoever the Phillies would get to replace Bohm.
So yes, there is a situation in which the Phillies could acquire Francisco Lindor. However, it would – at best – only slightly improve the team in the short term, and it would significantly harm the team in the long term. Therefore, the Phillies are better off staying far away from Francisco Lindor.
Featured Image: David Richard/USA Today Sports
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