Around 571 Reasons Why the Sixers Should Not Trade Ben Simmons or Joel Embiid
Despite the constant chatter of the Ben and Joel fit over recent years we know Joel and Ben actually played extremely well together when they were surrounded by the right players.
In 2017-18 we saw a 15.5 net rating when they shared the court and to a lesser extent, with less shooting, 2018-19 saw a 7.9 net rating. In 2019-20 this dropped to a net rating of 1.4. Anyone who sat through more than two games the Sixers played in the 2019-20 season would confirm these numbers are a true reflection of an ill-fitting team. Ben Simmons has five years on his contract and Joel three. Both on contracts any team would love to have. Ben is 24 and Joel is 26, any betting man (or woman) would say their best basketball is ahead of them.
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Perhaps the most underrated reason why not to trade Joel and Ben is that they actually want to be here.
When Ben was drafted, Joel went on the record saying how the two of them agreed they need to stay together. Joel has regularly said he wants to spend his whole career in Philly and now the front office is making moves to keep it that way. Genuine stars wanting to play in Philly are few and far between, we only need to consider the team’s recent free agency track record to know that.
Ben was very quick to sign his extension and there have never been murmurings of him looking elsewhere. He even has a 15% trade kicker built into his contract in case the team needs a little more encouragement not to trade him. Ben grew up in Australia where loyalty in sport is commonplace. The Australian Football League (AFL) is the most popular sport in the country and Ben Simmons grew up playing it. In fact, most who saw him play believe he would be excelling at a pro-level were it not for basketball. Players rarely change teams in the AFL, whilst it has moved closer to an American model of player movement in recent years, there are still only 15-20 players out of 700 moved each offseason. Players can easily force trades or leave in free agency, but they feel loyalty to their club. This is the sporting culture that Ben Simmons grew up in.
If we consider this in the context of a Ben Simmons for James Harden trade. Harden is 31 with two years left on his contract. Simmons is 24 with five years left on his contract. Maybe Harden elevates you from being a 5% chance of winning a championship to 10 to 20% per year. I would argue it’s no higher given the unknown of the Harden fit and the number of teams that are in the mix to win a championship over the next two seasons. And then there are the questions over Harden as a teammate. It’s beginning to come out that a lot of guys don’t want to play with him. It’s not hard to see why when you see more than five minutes of him on the court. Who wants to watch a teammate dribble for 23 seconds of the shot clock. Compare that to Ben Simmons who makes guys around him better. JJ Redick without hesitation named Ben as one of his favorite players he’s ever played with. That’s coming from a guy who’s been in the league for 14 years.
In keeping Joel and Ben together with the ideal fitting pieces around them for the next say 7 years, the team’s championship odds are likely to fluctuate between 5 to 15% each year. So we can trade for a guy who would prefer to play in Brooklyn and will probably end the process in 2 years or less, or we can give ourselves the best chance to keep this train rolling for the next 7 years.
I’m no Morey, but I know what odds I’m taking.
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