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What can we expect from Rhys Hoskins in 2021?
On September 12th, 2020, Rhys Hoskins’ ulnar collateral ligament wasn’t the only thing that was torn apart. The Philadelphia Phillies playoff hopes, and their chance to end a 9 year postseason drought, were also torn from the bone. At the time of the injury, Hoskins was on fire, hitting .264 with 6 doubles, 10 home runs, and 25 RBI’s in his last 27 games. Without Rhys in the lineup, the Phillies tanked, losing 12 out of their remaining 17 games.
So here we are again, Phillies fans, anxiously awaiting the dawn of a new season to see if this could finally be our year. Amidst all of the uncertainties of this offseason, from the front office’s direction to concerns over whether the season will even start on time, one looms large in my mind. What can we expect from Rhys Hoskins in 2021?
The Injury:
Tommy John surgery sucks. Trust me I’ve had it. The reconstruction of the ulnar collateral ligament — the band of tissue that connects the forearm to the upper arm — involves replacing the torn ligament with a tendon from a different part of the body, typically found in the wrist or the knee. If they take it from the knee you can barely walk for a couple of weeks. Have fun hobbling about while your arm feels like two floating parts inside of a cast.
Next, comes the rehab — which for throwers can take anywhere from 12-15 months — as you progress from the cast to a robotic brace to eventually nothing at all. The physical therapist becomes your new home; it’s the place where you learn to use your fingers again, slowly build arm strength, and embark upon a multi-month journey towards throwing a baseball again.
Fortunately for the Phillies, Rhys Hoskins doesn’t have to take part in the aforementioned melodrama. At least not all of it. Hoskins’ injury took place on his non-throwing arm — not that the 1st baseman is playing a position reliant on his arm — making his rehabilitation timetable a far more palatable 4-6 months after his October 5th surgery instead of a full year. Moreover, Hoskins’ injury was both traumatic and acute — a “small gap” in the UCL that the team tried to rehabilitate for a month before deciding surgery was the best option.
Although Hoskins’ is a baseball player, the context of his injury renders him a ‘non-throwing athlete’. In the 2019 article, “UCL Injury in the Non-Throwing Athlete”, published in the Current Reviews in Musculoskeletal Medicine, the authors state that in injuries such as Hoskins: “The resultant injury pattern is typically damage (often times partial versus complete tearing) of the ligament at a single site without compromise of tissue quality elsewhere within the ligament substance…. The sport specific demands of the non-throwing athlete’s elbow, namely the lack of repetitive valgus stress with throwing, may further facilitate earlier return to play following repair.”
Considering the optimistic outlook, Hoskins’ rehab appears to be coming along just fine. According to Hoskins, the slugger has been hitting off the tee for the past 3 weeks and “everything feels normal”.
Will Rhys be ready to go come (a hopeful) April 1st Opening Day? It’s possible, however Hoskins still has more trials to face before reporting to Spring Training a month from now. He still needs to develop his grip strength and overall comfortability with the bat in his hands — hitting a ball off a tee places far less stress on the arm versus connecting with a 95 mph fastball. Fielding, from routine ground balls to picking errant throws at 1st base, will also be an adjustment and not just physically, Hoskins admitted: “…it’s just mentally getting over those firsts.”
Batting:
Even if Rhys is on the field Opening Day, whether it be at 1st base or as the designated hitter if the National League resumes the role, the product may not match his mid-season tear last year. Hoskins has always been a streaky hitter, one who somehow always manages to be both the Phillies best and worst offensive player over the course of a season. After completely retooling his swing last offseason, Hoskins needed time to get back into his offensive groove. Moreover, if Hoskins misses or is out for much of Spring Training, he won’t be able to hit the regular season with his feet running. Factor in an offseason in which he’s been forced to hit primarily off a tee and unable to face any form of live pitching and the wait to see a productive Rhys Hoskins could extend well into the regular season.
Furthermore, the evidence regarding offensive production for position players post Tommy John surgery, while minimal, does not promote a positive outlook. At least not right away. The best comparison for Hoskins might come from his 2020 teammate, Didi Gregorius, who returned to the Yankees in 2019 after having Tommy John in late 2018. Although Gregorius had the operation on his throwing arm, both he and Hoskins had the surgery on the lead or bottom arm of their batting swing. This arm experiences less valgus stress during the swing as opposed to the trail arm or top hand.
While Didi Gregorius enjoyed a return to form in 2020 with the Phillies, after having Tommy John surgery in 2018, he struggled when he rejoined the Yankees just 7 months post operation. Minor setbacks in his shoulders and fingers caused Gregorius to have his worst season since 2015, batting .238 with 16 home runs and .718 OPS in 324 at bats. Encouraging however, was his ability to drive the ball as he saw increases in exit velocity, launch-angle, and hard-hit and barreled-ball percentages over his numbers prior to having surgery.
Impact on Team:
The Phillies need a productive Rhys Hoskins if they wish to win games. Even with a lineup featuring Alec Bohm, Bryce Harper, J.T. Realmuto, and Gregorius, that much was clear after their September skid.
Perhaps the key ingredient in the Rhys Hoskins recipe for offensive success is his place in the batting order — 2nd. Hoskins hit in the 2-hole in every one of his 41 starts, his placement followed sequentially by Harper and Realmuto essential to the team’s offensive success for a multitude of reasons. While the power-hitting Hoskins doesn’t exactly fit the traditional 2-hole mold of the speedy, sacrifice bunt specialist, his willingness to take pitches and draw walks negates his lack of speed on the base paths. Hoskins hit .270 when he took the first pitch of the at-bat — which he did in 140 out of his 185 plate appearances. The other 45 plate appearances in which he did swing at the first pitch? He hit .175 with nearly half as many strikeouts (14) as he had in the other 140 plate appearances (29).
Like I said earlier, Hoskins is a streaky hitter with the ability to carry the Phillies for stretches, but not the entire season. In batting 2nd, Hoskins is not only offered the protection of Harper and Realmuto, but an extra 30-50 plate appearances per season over his bodyguards and fewer plate appearances with 2 outs. This means Rhys isn’t forced to be something he’s not — the team’s primary source of offensive firepower — while still getting plenty of RBI chances and making the top of the lineup take a toll on the opposing pitcher’s pitch count.
In the event Realmuto and Gregorius don’t return, the Phillies are going to need Hoskins to become the team’s offensive stalwart — and not just for stretches of the season. Rhys would be forced to carry the load along with Bryce Harper — likely forgoing the luxury of batting 2nd — all while returning from an unprecedented injury. Is Hoskins up to the task? Only time will tell.
Featured Image: NBC Sports Philadelphia
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