Tide Still Rollin’: Tagovailoa vs. Hurts
“It’s unprecedented to have a guy that won as many games as he won, I think it’s 26 or something, over a two-year period. Start as a freshman. Only lose a couple games his whole time as a starter. And then all of a sudden he’s not the quarterback. How do you manage that? How do you handle that? You got to have a tremendous amount of character and class to put the team first, knowing that your situation is not what it used to be. And for a guy that’s a great competitor, that takes a lot. It’s not easy to do, and he’s always put the team first.” – Nick Saban
This is Alabama head coach Nick Saban speaking on Jalen Hurts following him heroic efforts leading the Crimson Tide to a victory in relief of Tua Tagovailoa, who left the earlier in the game with an ankle injury. A long journey indeed for a young man that never did anything wrong to lose his job. Remember that whole Quarterback Factory fiasco that made headlines all throughout Philadelphia? Well, Howie Roseman may have caught some heat but the unlike the NFL, the farm system is a popular method across the college football landscape. You’ve seen Lincoln Riley and Oklahoma produce three consecutive Heisman Trophy nominees, Then watched Clemson go from Deshaun Watson to future number one overall selection Trevor Lawrence and now to future projected first round pick D.J. Uiagalelei. So it shouldn’t be a surprise that despite having a star in the making in Jalen Hurts, Alabama continued to go back to the well in efforts to find the next star at the position.
Of course initially it started well as Hurts continued his reign of dominance of the across the first few weeks of the season, it didn’t take long for many begin questioning Hurts’ abilities as an actual passer, but how? As Saban mentioned we’re talking about a guy who’s won 20+ games in two years as a starter and his one loss at the moment came arguably at the expenses of the defense as Hurts could do nothing but watch helplessly as Watson led the Tigers on what became the game winning drive. 35-31 was the final score and as the man responsible for a 30 yard touchdown run that would have been the dagger if not for Watson’s heroics, you would think Hurts would still be recognized as the ‘big man on campus’. However all that any one could seemingly talk about for the entirety of the spring was the fact that the now sophomore sensation could only amaze 131 yards passing on 31 attempts. One could make the argument that was the case of a Clemson defense that featured multiple soon-to-be first round selection in the NFL draft. Or you could look at it as a trend as Hurts only went over 200 yards passing five times during the 2016 season include a performance against the University of Washington in the Semi Final game that saw him produce just 57 yards passing. So as you would expend the onus was on Hurts to take the next step as a passer heading into his second year in Tuscaloosa. Well as a sophomore despite the wins continuing to pour in, Hurts seemingly regressed as a passer, at least statistically as he went over the 200 yard mark just twice on the season. Then it all began to come to a head in the SEC Championship game as Alabama lost to Auburn in a game Hurts completed 54% of his passes and had 112 yards passing. While the Crimson Tide made the College Football Playoffs and rolled to their annual appearance in the National Championship game, it was here the change was finally made. After completing just three passes for 21 yards through a half of play, Hurts again was forced to watch a National Championship game from the sidelines, this time as his successor led the team to a 26-23 comeback victory.
Despite the preverbal writing on the wall, Hurts stuck around for a third season in Tuscaloosa. This time in the midst of a quarterback controversy that saw Saban uses the old Tom Brady/Drew Henson approach where both quarterbacks were allocated playing time. Was this the best idea for the team? Probably not, but Saban felt an obligation to give Hurts an opportunity to prove him wrong.
“I understand how unique a situation this is. I don’t know of any other precedent at any time in college football where a guy started 28 games, won 26 of them and then somebody took his place. That’s never happened. So that’s hard for Jalen, and it’s hard for me. I’m a loyal guy and loyal to the guys who get out there and lay it on the line for you. You want to be fair to all of your players, but you also want to be fair to your team.”
However after a few weeks it became objectively clear that the left handed, Hawaiian native was the best man for the job. To put it in this perspective Hurts had seven career games at Alabama in which he went over 200 yards passing, Tagovailoa had 11 which of those games in 2018 alone. While Hurts did have his aforementioned moment of redemption in the SEC championship game against a familiar foe, Tagovailoa went on to cement himself as the better of the two as passers, leading the Crimson Tide to another National Championship appearance and solidified the starting job heading into 2019. So there it seemed the final chapter of the story was written and we could finally close the book on the ‘Quarterback controversy heard around Tuscaloosa’. At this moment, with the information supplied it would be safe to assume that Tagovailoa would be considered the better NFL prospect moving forward right? Surely you’ve heard of names like Cam Newton, Kyler Murray, Baker Mayfield, Joe Burrow, and this hot name this off-season Justin Fields. What each of these names have in common aside from being eventual first round picks? Each of these guys initially lost quarterback battles at their previous universities before transferring and becoming the prospects we now know. Something Hurts has in common with this bunch as it took a change of scenery to unlock a new found skill set as a passer.
“I saw a guy, I thought, who needed to be freed up a little bit, in my opinion. Our goal with him has been freeing him up and letting him play a little more open and free. I saw the makings of that last year and thought he did a lot of really good things. At times, they moved it just as well or even better when he was in there, and obviously Tua was absolutely phenomenal last year. But I thought Jalen was really, really good, too, and I think he’s better right now than he was last year.” – Lincoln Riley
Both Hurts and Tagovailoa were expected to move on to the NFL level following the 2019 season. Heading into the year it was thought by many that they would have a pretty good idea of how both players would be viewed amongst draft boards. Tua Tagovailoa was the coveted, surefire top five selection and a blend of Russell Wilson the runner — decision maker and Drew Brees the soft touch, deadly accurate passer. While Jalen Hurts was generally a question mark, his draft board placement ranked anywhere from a talented third/fourth round selection in need of some extra grooming and a fifth or sixth round project that will need a few years before making a significant impact on an offense. However, it was widely known that the last two first overall selections in the NFL draft were products of Oklahoma and the high powered Lincoln Riley system. So scouts eyes were on what the quarterback guru could do for the most polarizing prospect in the nation. Well it didn’t take long for the star transfer quarterback to take the country by storm becoming a massive threat through the air. Once again for some perspective, as mentioned the seven games with 200+ passing yards Hurts was able to produce while at Alabama; well in one season at Oklahoma, Hurts not only topped 300 passing yards in his first game but went over 200 yards passing in 12 out of 14 total games.
There it was, a player who won a 26 out of a possible 28 career games as the starter and he was replaced all due to his inabilities to keep defenses honest as a passer. Yet here we are just one season away from the perennial powerhouse in the nation and this guy looks like a completely passer. We haven’t even mentioned how the injury bug once again struck Tagovailoa, this time in catastrophic fashion. The future first round pick saw his season and possibly future in question with a massive hip injury that potentially cost Tagovailoa the chance at being the first overall pick. Boy does life change quickly, once again here we are just one year removed from Tagovailoa solidifying himself and one of the top prospect in the entire country. Now, a year here we are with questioning of if Tagovailoa was even the best fit for that offense?
Photo: Sports Illustrated
While Tagovailoa did maintain first round status, the questions and conversation that we thought died following Hurts exit from Tuscaloosa were now alive and well. In fact after finishing second in Heisman Trophy voting on the season, Hurts became one of the biggest risers during draft season, en route to becoming the most surprising 53rd overall selection in the history of the league. Still with one being a first round selection and the other being a day two pick, there wasn’t much of an expectation that the conversation would live past training camp. However as the year progressed both of their respective franchises saw opportunities to go away from their initial plans to the point where Dolphins fans are actually questioning a future with Tagovailoa and Eagles fans began to actually buy into the prospect of Hurts as the future of the franchise. Now with massive questions surrounding both players heading into the start of the new league year, the PHLEaglesNation group thought it would be wise to get an outside perspective of how Hurts and Tagovailoa are viewed around the league. So our very own Mar’Quell Fripp-Owens had the opportunity to converse with NBC Sports’ Hayden Winks to see what his views on the two former Crimson Tide quarterbacks are heading into the off-season.
Mar’Quell Fripp-Owens: “We know about the ‘QB controversy heard across Tuscaloosa’ and how it turned out. From then up leading up to what we know now, with one year of NFL experience under their belt which player has the higher ceiling?”
Hayden Winks: “I think Hurts has the higher ceiling in theory because a more dynamic athlete, but I think Tua has an easier path to hitting his ceiling. His touch is better as a passer, and we’ve seen him play at high levels for longer.”
- This is the big question when it comes to these two — Initially it was believed to be Tua Tagovailoa based on where the two stood just a few years ago during their time at Alabama. That was the purpose of Saban deciding to go with Tagovailoa, while Hurts offered an unorthodox skill set, Tagovailoa gave the team the best opportunity to win the most games in the future based on his abilities to pass the ball. However while the knock on Hurts was and continues to be weather or not his arm is at the NFL level, we’ve also seen Tagovailoa arm talent come into question at both Alabama and Miami. Lets just say theres a reason Devonta Smith picked Mac Jones over Tagovailoa and why Miami rolled Fitzpatrick out to finish games. While one of Tagovailoa’s strengths coming in was his Bress-esque accuracy, his arm strength limits a lot of what teams can do offensively. Either way both quarterbacks showed promised during there first seasons, while I believe Hurts’ abilities as a runner will ultimately put him over the top, its worth noting how both quarterbacks performed over their first four starts, if you’re looking for a starting point.
Photo: Thomas Petersen
Fripp-Owens: “Both players showed a lot of good last season but also have some question marks surrounding their future with their current franchises. Which one has the better chance of being the opening week starter for their current team?”
Winks: “Tua should be the starter next year. The Dolphins have other needs to fill with their pick, and I think Tua did enough in a shaky situation to deserve at least one more season. I would make the same argument for the Hurts, but I’m less convinced the front office feels the same way. We are unsure who was driving the bus for the Hurts pick last year. What if it was Doug Pederson?”
- There has been much speculation surrounding the future of both quarterbacks and their current franchise heading into the off-season. While its understandable the questions around Hurts given the new coaching regime, Philadelphia’s draft placement, and the uncertainty of the front office’s legitimate belief in him. Four games isn’t enough to grade any player. Through the first four weeks of Carson Wentz’s rookie season there was enough to believe Philadelphia may had found its franchise signal caller for the next decade. Now injuries and a lot of other developments played a significant role in that situation, but the point being no one truly knows what a player could become after a month of play no matter how high or low they get. Should Hurts get the opportunity to start, quite frankly he deserves it, but is investing in Hurts the best option for an Eagles team that may or may not be in position to select a quarterback in any season following this one? If not and you’re sold on a guy you have to take him right? Well thats a decision for the higher ups at the Novacare Complex to decide.
As for Tagovailoa, Miami is in a funny position where they have a pretty decent roster that obviously can and will improve. They have a projected $28m in cap space, draft assets, and a great group of coaches who have everyone bought in to what they’re trying to build. Personally I would like to see them ride with Tagovailoa just as Hayden said for at least one more season. There are a few bright stars along the offense from Gesicki, to Parker, to both of the young guys in the back field (Gaskin/Ahmed). However, they happen to be one of the few team in the league with the assets to acquire a perineal all-pro player at the quarterback position. They shouldn’t sell the farm but should certainly have a close eye on those situations should one become available. Who knows maybe they’re the ones leaving Houston those voicemails.
Fripp-Owens: “Which player will have the better career in five years?”
Winks: “I can see both being franchise quarterbacks, but on draft capital alone, Tua will get a longer benefit of the doubt. Hurts will have to be good from the jump to be a franchise quarterback in five years. Tua has a little more wiggle room to learn from his mistakes.”
- This is an interesting one because if Alabama told you anything it was to bet with Tua Tagovailoa in this instance because he’s the safer pick. But thats just it, maybe he’s too safe. One thing that we know about Tagovailoa is that he will protect the football, now sometimes that comes at the expense of being conservative instead of being a gun slinger but thats just typically who and what Tagovailoa has always been. He’s going to make the smart read, it may not be the best but to simply put it Tua may not win you many games at this point in his career, but he certainly won’t be the reason you lose them. At least not statistically, because the film shows a quarterback who made typical rookie mistakes, missed reads, bad sacks taken, things that can be fixed over time. Now what may not be fix is 600 yards through four games, but given the style of football Miami has shown they like to play, at least with Tagovailoa under center, then he is the typical play it safe style quarterback they are looking for.
But the question is who will have a better career in five years and while Miami is in position to set Tagovailoa up for more success than Philadelphia does for Hurts at the moment, theres this Jalen Hurts quote that I keep coming back to that just makes it impossible not to buy in because, well he’s right; at least history has shown him to be.
“There’s a thrill in not being satisfied. It keeps you going and I just want to continue to take steps every day, and be the best version of myself. There’s no ceiling on my game, there isn’t a cap. So just continue to take steps.”
Fripp-Owens: “Is there any thing specific that jumps off the screen when you watch both guys from their collegiate days until now. What similarities and differences do you see in their games?”
Winks: “Hurts’ athleticism translated really well in his four starts. I think he can be a decent passer as well, but the Eagles didn’t give him many full field reads and didn’t have much, if any, of a quick pass game in 2020. If Hurts’ Oklahoma tape showed us anything, it was that he has enough accuracy to win at all levels. Hopefully the Eagles allow that to happen. As for Tua, he was missing a lot of reads as a rookie. That could’ve just been a little new since a lot of production at Alabama was off one-read, RPO, and yards after the catch. Another receiving weapon, better playcalling, and more interior offensive lineman should serve him well.”
- Watching these guys on Sundays seem very reminiscent to the days of watching them on Saturdays. While they may not see the same level of success on the scoreboard now as they did then, they are typically what we expected them to be coming out. While Tagovailoa may have underwhelmed according to standards, which is bound to happen when you’re the primary focus of a ‘Tank for insert players name here‘ campaign. However, when you watch the Dolphins offense with Tua under center you see Chan Gailey trying to find the perfect balance of what he likes to do schematically and what Tagovailoa did at Alabama. When Tagovailoa is asked to do a typical drop back and go through progressions, as Hayden said you see missed reads and a lot of bad sacks taken, could be due to him not completely trusting the interior offensive line or to him not being fully comfortable being a read to read quarterback yet. However when you saw Miami go up-tempo and feature the RPOs Tagovailoa did in college, he was a whole lot more successful. Given how Miami has chosen to ‘place the training wheels’ on Tagovailoa as a rookie, it will be interesting to see how much of a development he takes going into year two.
To many Jalen Hurts did a lot better than he was expected to do. He showed a lot of good through the first two starts including a victory over what we then the best defense in the league. However the game against Dallas showed that just like every rookie, Hurts is prone to mistakes. While a full off-season, as well as better play calling and a better roster around him should allow him the opportunity to improve from what we saw. However Philadelphia where did a lot of field simplifying for Hurts, and just like we saw during his collegiate days often when the first read was covered Hurts was quick to pull the ball down and scramble. Given they most of the time these scrambles resulted in positive plays, Hurts quickly found out that defenders at this level are even faster than the ones in the mighty SEC (see Arizona game). Hurts should be a whole lot more comfortable in the Siriani-based offense as it goes back to a lot of the mesh and screen concepts he excelled at in Norman.
Fripp-Owens: “Which player is going to have the bigger Fantasy Football season next year?”
Winks: “I have Hurts as a borderline top-12 quarterback right now. If the Eagles don’t draft a quarterback with their 2021 first-round pick, he’ll be a top-10 fantasy QB. He averaged 23.0 fantasy points in his four starts last year. Tua’s fantasy ceiling is a lot lower because he doesn’t run as much and that Miami offense wants to be balanced and use a lot of 12-personnel. He’s closer to the top-24 range.”
- Tagovailoa’s best Fantasy Football outing last season came in a week 14 matchup against the Kansas City Chiefs. This game turned out to be more of a shootout than expected. And while not many people gave the Dolphins a chance in this one in the first place, almost no one thought Tua Tagovailoa could match the best in the business throw for throw. That’s exactly what he did going 28-48 for 316 yards, two touchdowns and an interceptions; all good enough for 27 fantasy points on the day. The problem is Tagovailoa only has one other outing with 20+ fantasy points, where as Jalen Hurts averaged 25 fantasy points per game between weeks 14 through 16. Shouldn’t be much push back here, even ESPN’s fantasy guru Matthew Berry is on the Hurts train, buy in while there’s still room.
Featured Image: Eric Hartline & Mark Brown/Getty Images
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