Phillies 2021 Lineup Projection & Predictions
Down the stretch last season in the final two weeks to a week and a half, the Phils rolled out a lineup of,
- McCutchen
- Bohm
- Harper
- Realmuto
- Gregorius
- Segura
- Bruce
- Knapp
- Kingery
Harper and Bohm periodically switched between the two and three-hole, but the surrounding structure stayed consistent. Rhys will be re-inserted, but overall the Phillies lineup should relatively mirror the one above. Last season, this lineup tied the San Diego Padres and Colorado Rockies for the eighth-best team batting average at .257. Essentially running it back with Alec Bohm’s productivity expected to increase and Andrew McCutchen now having a season of recovery under his belt, the ceiling may be even higher this season.
Girardi even commented on the return of smoothness in Cutch’s strides when he went from first to third in the first inning of the Phillies’ first broadcasted spring training game Monday, talking with Tom McCarthy and Ben Davis. It sounds like Cutch may have been dealing with some mental lapses trying to regain complete confidence in his knee, which is no surprise considering the severity of the injury.
Nevertheless, all of that now in the rearview mirror, this lineup will have its first entire spring camp together in what feels like a semi-normal setting which should improve their continuity. Especially being lead by Bryce Harper, entering his third season with a “breath of fresh air,” under the new leadership of Dave Dombroski will give rise to Harp’s best season as a Phillie. The PECOTA (Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm) fits with that narrative projecting Bryce to be the fourth-best hitter in baseball this season. Bryce also came out this offseason and said he feels he can fully be himself in Philadelphia. With a proven winner grabbing the franchise’s reigns and a semi-return to normalcy, Harp is primed to rake all year, whether in the two or three spot.
Critical to maintaining Harper’s ominous presence in the lineup are J.T. and Rhys. J.T. assuming health should keep on keeping on, in his two years in red pinstripes, he’s batted over .265, hit double-digit homers, and strikes out less than 30 percent of the time in the box.
Hoskins, on the other hand, coming back from an elbow injury last season, made his spring debut today and looked balanced, relaxed, and confident in the box. His first at-bat sending an absolute laser hitting the center-field wall on the fly for a double and kept his hands back in his second at-bat kept his hands back and drove an outside heater to right-center instead of rolling over. Showing that level of recognition and plate discipline so early on is hugely encouraging.
Now to everyone’s favorite young stud and future best third basemen in the league, Alec Bohm. In today’s broadcast against the Yankees, Joe Girardi said Bohm coming into camp is stronger than at any point last season and is beginning to “fill out.” Bohm must’ve heard his manager’s high praise because he put his newly gained strength to use, connecting on a 3-1 98 mph fastball that shot off like a missile traveling 433ft to dead center. His hands seem to be a little lower as well, modeling a Jayson Werth-type stance, and we all know what happened the last time the Phillies had a right-handed bat with significant power.
Crucial to the bottom of the order success, Didi and Segura not only need to form rapport turning two but consistently provide hard-liners in the gap to drive home the stars at the top. Didi doesn’t offer any reason to worry, he bounced back excellently last year after a down year prior, plus the banks’ short porch provides Gregorious to display his unique pull power.
Segura, though, has underwhelmed me in his time with the Phillies. In the three previous seasons before joining the Phils, Jean batted at least .300 or over and was an All-Star just one year before joining the club. Segura hit .280 his first year and .266 last, not remotely close to expectations. Girardi noted today, though, that so far this spring, Jean’s chasing less. Hopefully, that’ll lead him to control and balance his stance more effectively.
Now, Scott Kingery received contact lenses this offseason. This decision should allow him to perceive his surroundings more vividly. Plus, coming in at his more natural weight and reverting his playing style of singles and doubles while utilizing his speed to compliment his natural frame, Kingery performance will be one to keep a close eye on all spring. I’m excited to see his return at a more natural playing weight, providing him the opportunity to play the game more freely, which is the optimum mindset to have when stepping over the chalked line.
All that said, for the majority of the season, I project the lineup will look as follows.
- McCutchen LF
- Bohm 3B
- Harper RF
- Hoskins 1B
- Realmuto C
- Gregorius SS
- Segura 2B
- Kingery CF
- Pitcher
There are several ways to re-order the lineup and could even argue other players to be in the starting lineup; a good problem to have. Now though, it’s time to kick back for a couple of weeks and enjoy the reality of baseball being back and spring peeking its head around the corner.
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Categorized:Phillies