Exceptional, but not the exception – Aaron Nola & the Phillies’ failure to develop homegrown pitching
Aaron Nola is exceptional. He made his Major League debut only one year after being drafted 7th overall in 2014 and since the 2018 season has started the most games, he’s pitched the 2nd-most innings and piled up the 6th-most strikeouts out of any pitcher in the MLB. Aaron Nola is exceptional — but he should not be the exception.
That exception being that Nola is the only homegrown Phillie to be a permanent and productive member of the starting rotation. The two Zachs, Wheeler and Eflin, sure weren’t drafted by the Phils. Neither were back-end hopefuls Matt Moore, Chase Anderson, or Vince Velasquez. The only other potential homegrown starting pitcher is prospect Spencer Howard, who very well may not be ready to crack the rotation. In fact, the only other home-grown (i.e. drafted or signed by the Phillies as a amateur free-agent) pitchers on the projected 40-man roster are relievers Connor Brogdon, Hector Neris, JoJo Romero, and Ranger Suarez. While hopes are high for Brogdon, Neris is the only one who is a veritable big-leaguer, not to mention a productive one.
So where does this leave the Phillies and why does it matter?
Well, the proof is in the pudding. The World Series Champions, the Los Angeles Dodgers drafted and developed All six of their top pitchers: Clayton Kershaw, Walker Buehler, Julio Urias, Dustin May, and Tony Gonsolin are homegrown. Blake Snell, the best pitcher on their opponent, the Tampa Bay Rays, was also home-grown. The Cleveland Indians rode one of the league’s best starting rotations to a wild-card playoff berth this past season. Their three top pitchers, including 2020 American League Cy Young winner Shane Bieber — all were members of the same 2016 Indians’ draft class. Moreover, the Phillies 2008 World Series team was built upon a starting rotation of homegrown pitchers in Cole Hamels, Kyle Kendrick, Brett Myers, and Adam Eaton — (OK, maybe Eaton wasn’t exactly ‘homegrown’ but he was drafted by the Phils which has to count for something).
My point is that developing a starting rotation featuring multiple homegrown pitchers is beneficial for multiple reasons. The first is that it alleviates stress on the rest of the roster. Let’s return to the present in which the 2021 rotation has question marks from the number two pitcher down — you can’t convince me that Zach Wheeler will be a sure thing until he can prove that he’ll pitch consistently past the 5th inning. While the Phillies’ biggest weakness last season was undeniably the bullpen, a revamped relief core won’t be of much use if they have to fill in for inconsistent starting pitching every 4th or 5th day. Unless Anderson, Moore, or Howard can provide quality starts with a modicum of regularity, the bullpen is in danger of being stretched too thin — unable to provide shutdown pitching in the late innings of Nola’s and Wheeler’s starts because they are worn out from stringing together 4-5 innings the previous day. A homegrown starter on the back-end of the rotation could help alleviate that potential burden.
Another benefit of a rotation featuring homegrown talent is the flexibility that it would create regarding roster construction. Two of the Phillies’ major moves this off-season were retaining position players they had last year — J.T. Realmuto and Didi Gregorious. The others were a flurry of quality, albeit smaller, signings like trades such as signing reliever Archie Bradley, and trading for Jose Alvarado and Sam Coonrod. But what if those moves didn’t have to be made? No, the Phillies didn’t break the bank on signing an aging starter — the Jake Arrieta fiasco scared them off well enough — but if one or two of those rotational spots were already filled, the Phils would’ve been free to spend elsewhere in free agency such as on another quality outfield bat or bigger-name relievers.
Think too of players like Adam Haseley, Roman Quinn, Scott Kingery, and even Odubel Herrera. All four are competing for just one center field spot — which leaves at least one if not two of them potentially on the trading block. If the Phillies had a more definitive starting rotation entering Spring Training, they could have potentially leveraged a higher trade value for one of those players when it’s time to wrap things up in Clearwater. Furthermore, their trade value may come into importance further down the line — in the event the starting pitching needs serious help mid-season, a package including one of the aforementioned four and a couple of prospects could be made for a more established starter at the trade deadline. This isn’t to say the current squad will fail, just something to keep in mind.
Lastly, and perhaps the most important aspect of fostering homegrown talent, is its role in creating a positive culture of development. Baseball is the most mentally taxing sport — unless you count that infernal game they call golf — and upon entering the farm system, the average prospect faces a grim reality: only 10% of us will make it to the Major Leagues. Only 1/3rd of prospects selected in the 1st round will make it to the bigs, much less stick. Why? Well baseball is impossible, for a number of reasons, but chiefly because it forces the athlete to confront their own inability on a daily basis. When it comes to the Phillies — a team that has not drafted nor developed their prospects particularly well over the past twenty years — having homegrown talent across the roster is crucial to providing hope to prospects in the team’s farm system. Players need to look at the 40-man roster and think, “wow, I could actually make it here”, instead of looking at the wreckage of failed prospects that litter the outskirts of Citizens Bank Park. Aaron Nola and Alec Bohm are just the tip of the iceberg. Young arms like Spencer Howard and Adonis Medina must be handled with care to pave the way for even younger arms like 2020 1st round right-hander Mick Abel.
Featured Image: Carmen Mandato / Getty Images
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