Need for Knebel – Phillies Must Supplement Bullpen with More Free Agents
“We think he can close games,” Dave Dombrowski uttered to the press on December 1st, after inking 30-year reliever Corey Knebel to a one-year $10 million deal. Dombrowski then clarified that Knebel had not been promised the closer role, but would have every opportunity to seize the job.
It wasn’t exactly a glowing endorsement of the team’s only marquee signing, but Dombrowski had to be guarded. He knew there was no point in making promises or setting lofty expectations. The burden of the bullpen’s failures could be felt through all that he said – and didn’t say.
Beyond the context of Dombrowski’s statements, however, lies the larger and uglier truth of just how perilous of a state the team is really in.
It’s the fact that the Phillies are like a mansion, perched on the edge of a scenic cliff, overlooking the ocean. From the photos, the house is exquisite – from the lavish marble flooring to the ornate interior décor and floor to ceiling windows it’s clear that no expense has been spared. In person, however, the property is nothing more than a façade – the frame is cheaply built, the walls are caving in on one another, and the cliff it’s built upon is being eroded by the waves below.
For all the money that this team has spent, their chances at reaching the postseason have not improved. While they tote N.L. MVP, the N.L. Cy Young runner-up, and the best catcher in baseball on their star-studded roster, they still often play in front of half capacity crowds. Although their aging core players have a limited window of contention, they lack the foundation of home-grown talent to plan for the future.
While it may not look like it, the Phillies are hanging on for dear life. Like the mansion, the cliff they’ve found themselves on – their immediate goal of postseason contention – is eroding. Without a strong farm system, their long term future is bleak. All they have is a pipedream of contention, held together by hope. They’ve spent a decade away from the postseason, and the last few years stuck in an unyielding cycle of mediocrity – thanks to ownership that’s too cheap to break the luxury tax and a farm system that’s too barren to supplement the roster and warrant further spending. Many waves crash into the team’s foundation, waiting for it to wash away, but perhaps none are as big as the bullpen and Corey Knebel.
Maybe Dombrowski was so cautious when speaking about Knebel, because he didn’t want to jinx anything. It would make sense because so much of this team is built upon hope and speculation. After all, the Phillies are hoping that Knebel, who had Tommy John surgery in 2019, and has only pitched 39 regular season innings in the past 3 years can stay healthy over a full season. They are hoping that Knebel, who relies on just a fastball and a curveball, can be effective over 50-70 innings instead of just 25.2. Most of all, they are hoping that Knebel can become “the guy”, slotting into the closer role and in turn, bringing stability to a ‘pen full of talented yet volatile arms.
What’s dangerous about all of this hope surrounding Knebel and the ‘pen, is that it all feels quite speculative. While Knebel was a good signing, and may make a good closer, he wasn’t the slam-dunk free agent like Rafael Iglesias or Aaron Loup. He’s a 30-year old two-pitch reliever with a spotty injury history and only one excellent year under his belt (2017). Additionally, the Phillies are banking that his success from increased curveball usage – 42% of his pitches 2021, .186 BAA – especially in fastball counts, will fool hitters over a full season.
Perhaps even more concerning is the lack of stability underneath Knebel, assuming that he takes the closer role. Three of the five relievers who logged the most innings in 2021 (Ranger Suarez, Hector Neris, and Archie Bradley) won’t be around in 2022. Is the gaping hole left behind – 165.2 Innings, 3.04 combined ERA, to be filled by Connor Brogdon, Jose Alvarado, and Sam Coonrod? While talented, all three missed time with injury, struggled with command, and proved too inconsistent to trust past the 7th inning. It seems recklessly optimistic to assume that with Knebel as closer, part of the crew that blew 34 saves and posted the 6th highest ERA (4.60) and BAA (.246) in baseball will miraculously turn things around.
It’s evident that even in the best case scenario for Knebel’s performance in 2022, quality supplemental arms are needed. And in the worst case scenario – Knebel can’t grab the closer role, misses time with injury – chaos reminiscent of the past two years ensues.
Either way, upon the lockout’s end, Dombrowski will need to make some moves. While the safest bet would be to dump a ton of money or draft picks into a top-end closer like Kenley Jansen or Craig Kimbrel and have Knebel pitch in support of them, the Phillies aren’t likely to do so. In fact, given the roster holes in left and center field – areas the team is likely to spend more in regards to the payroll – and Middleton’s reluctance to break the luxury tax, another reliever at $10 million or more AAV isn’t likely to happen either.
So who can they realistically target in free agency? Among some of the top relievers available are 34-year old’s Ryan Tepera (2.79 ERA, 1.8 WAR, 74 SO, 61.1 IP) and Colin McHugh (1.55 ERA, 1.9 WAR, 74 SO, 64 IP). While these two may be out of reach in the $10 AAV – range, more reachable targets could include Joe Kelly (2.86 ERA, 0.7 WAR, 50 SO, 44 IP) or Brad Hand (3.90 ERA, -0.3 WAR, 61 SO, 64.2 IP).
If the Phillies truly want to avoid another year of mediocrity and keep this ramshackle postseason dream alive, it will have to be done through action – a willingness to spend the necessary amount on proven players – and not just blind hope.
Featured Image: MLB.com
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Categorized:Phillies