Phillies -1.5 (-128) AND/OR Phillies ML and Wheeler O 5.5 Ks
Let’s face it, someone let the Phils get hot. The boys are 11-2 in their last 13 games and have been doing it in style. Fresh off a Garrett Stubbs walk-off bomb, the Phils FINALLY get to play the 23-42 Washington Nationals, a team that has a 5-20 record playing against other NL East teams. If that matchup isn’t sweet enough, Zach Wheeler will be on the mound (5-3 with a 2.84 ERA) facing off against Patrick Corbin (3-8 with a 6.65 ERA). All signs are pointing to a Phillies victory tonight, hence their -210 price on the moneyline. My bet is that the Phillies will beat the Nationals tonight, however I want better value than the -210 ML. I recommend either taking the Phillies run-line -1.5, or a same game parlay of Zach Wheeler to throw over 5.5 strikeouts combined with a Phillies win. First off for the Phillies runline at -1.5, during this 13 game hot streak the Phils have won 8 of their 11 games by more than one run, while the Nationals have lost their last 4 straight games by at least 3 runs. In Patrick Corbin’s last three outings he’s averaging 4.66 runs per appearance, while Wheeler is averaging 1 run allowed per his last three appearances.
Now looking at Zach Wheeler’s strikeout over/under. Tonight his number is at 5.5 at -140 odds, which is uncharacteristically low for Wheeler. The Washington Nationals don’t do much well as a team, but they are actually one of the best teams in the MLB at NOT striking out. The Nationals are averaging 7.31 strikeouts per game, which is 2nd best in the MLB. That being said, Zach Wheeler has thrown over 5.5 strikeouts in 8 straight starts. As long as Wheeler works around Josh Bell (noted Phillies killer) , anticipate Wheeler to work deep into this game and keep those strikeout numbers up. Parlaying Wheeler’s strikeouts over at 5.5 with a Phillies win gets you +130 odds, a fantastic value for a red hot team and pitcher to do what they’re supposed to.
Photo: David J Griffin