Alec Bohm: Trade Candidate?
Over the next 10 days, sleep will likely be at a premium for Phillies President of Baseball Operations, Dave Dombrowski. His phone will ring at all hours of the day, text messages will be plentiful, and he will make decisions that could change the landscape of the club’s 2022 season and beyond. Like all individuals who run the baseball operations department of any given organization, Dombrowski will need to answer various questions to steer the Phillies in the right direction. Is the team a buyer or seller? Should the team make a major upgrade or marginal improvements? Are there any untouchable pieces that cannot be parted with under any circumstances?
To answer those questions, the Phillies are a clear buyer at the August 2nd Trade Deadline with a record of 49-44 heading into Saturday night’s bout with the Cubs. The club is also in a position where they can be in on anyone––with the most pressing needs being the starting rotation, centerfield, and the bullpen. Unlike years past, money should not be an issue since the Phillies have already surpassed the $230 million luxury tax threshold and have about $10 million in wiggle room until an additional 12% tax is added to the 20% tax they will already pay. The only question remaining for Dombrowski and the rest of the Phillies’ brain trust is who they are willing to part with. Top pitching prospects Mick Abel, Andrew Painter, and Griff McGarry are safe bets to stay as it would likely take a mega deal for them to even be discussed in trades. Catching prospect Logan O’Hoppe and outfield prospect Johan Rojas, both of whom are penciled in the lineup for Double-A Reading, could be the centerpiece in a trade package. However, Dombrowski’s biggest trade chip is on the big league roster. That is everyday third baseman and former top prospect, Alec Bohm.
In his third big league season, Bohm has underwhelmed at the plate and, for the most part, held his own defensively. Though he is not by any means a metrics darling in the field, he has shown signs of being a competent third baseman since his infamous…statement during his three error game on April 11. While Bohm’s peripheral offensive statistics are not wowing by any stretch of the imagination, the advanced metrics show that he is better than his .276/.313/.387 slash line. Bohm’s xwOBA, which takes the exit velocity and launch angle of all batted balls and compares them to similarly hit balls to determine the expected outcome of any particular hit, ranks in the 75th percentile among all Major League hitters and his xBA, which measures the likelihood of any batted ball becoming a hit, ranks in the 95th percentile. For reference, the National League’s starting third baseman in this year’s All-Star Game, Manny Machado, ranks in the 76th and 74th, respectively. Machado is slashing .299/.374/.506 this year.
Now, with all this in mind, why would Dombrowski even consider trading Alec Bohm? He’s shown he can play a capable third base and, though his slash line doesn’t reflect a particularly good offensive season, Bohm clearly is filled with offensive potential waiting to be tapped into. But that’s just it––potential. Over his first three big league seasons, Bohm has not shown he can consistently be the middle-of-the-order bat that made him the top hitting prospect in the Phillies organization. Yes, he is a nice bat to have in the lineup, but would losing him sink the 2022 season for the Phils? It would not, especially when the Phillies have relatively good infield depth as injuries over the past couple of months have shown us.
If Dombrowski were to tangle Bohm in trade discussions, though, it cannot be for a marginal upgrade on an expiring contract. Bohm would be a valuable commodity on the market––a 25-year-old infielder under team control through 2026 who has all the makings of an All-Star once he learns how to elevate his line drive swing. As the organization currently stands, Bohm probably has the most trade value out of anyone in the system. He has shown he can handle major league pitching with a floor of being an average hitter and a ceiling of becoming a perennial All-Star. Therefore, if he were to be dealt, it must bring back a haul where the Phillies don’t just become a better team this year, but are stronger for years to come.
Some trade scenarios that could force Dombrowski’s hand would be as follows:
Phillies acquire CF Bryan Reynolds and Closer David Bednar from the Pirates in exchange for Bohm, Mick Abel, Mickey Moniak and a mid-tier prospect.
Phillies acquire SP Frankie Montas, RP Domingo Acevedo, and CF Ramon Laureano from the Athletics in exchange for Bohm, Johan Rojas and two lower-tier prospects.
Let me be clear: trading Alec Bohm is not my preference. I believe in his talent and his future potential as an All-Star third baseman who could be a valuable piece in a World Series lineup. However, Bohm’s potential value to future Phillies teams should not keep Dave Dombrowski from discussing his name in trade talks come August 2nd. The Phillies have not made the playoffs since 2011. If Bohm is the cost to get the Fightins back to Red October in 2022, then Dombrowski should make the trade.
Photo: Kyle Ross/USA Today Sports
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