What Will the Phillies Do at the Trade Deadline?
The Philadelphia Phillies organization is hungry. They are starving to break a 10 year playoff drought that has been filled with dreadful losses, painful rosters, and extraordinary underachievement after Matt Klentak and Andy MacPhail’s plan for sustained success failed. When the Phillies embarked on their rebuilding period in the early 2010s, they attempted to become the Astros or the Cubs. Instead, they wound up becoming the Angels––an aging, top heavy roster with little depth and a lack of premium talent in the minor leagues. But, unlike the Angels, the Phillies are in playoff contention and will be buyers on the August 2nd Trade Deadline.
To stick with the appetite metaphor, the Phillies have two options this deadline season: a gourmet meal with a side of veggies or more of a family style buffet. Gourmet options, like Juan Soto and Frankie Montas, are expensive and will cost a heavy toll in prospect capital. In addition, those types of players are heavily demanded in a sellers market, which further drives the price. Though they’d be nice to have, the Phillies do not have the luxury to give up their premium minor league talent, yet. On the buffet menu, though, there are plenty of quality choices that are better fits for the current state of the Phillies roster. As Dave Dombrowski said earlier this week regarding the organization’s approach at the deadline, the Phillies are trying to make the postseason, but are in no position to unload the farm system for a one-year rental or a generational talent.
So, let’s ask the very expensive question. What should the Phillies do by 6:00 pm on August 2nd? Or, better yet, what will the Phillies do? Looking at the club’s needs in tandem with where they are in the standings, the organization surely won’t stand pat and hope the current roster is good enough. Hope is not a viable strategy for a team who hasn’t made the postseason in a decade. Therefore, with trades imminent, let’s take a look at what the Phillies should and will likely do before the deadline.
What the Phillies SHOULD do:
Phillies acquire OF Ian Happ and RP David Robertson from the Cubs in exchange for OF Johan Rojas (#4), SS Luis Garcia (#7), and SP Ben Brown (#26).
This would be a vintage Dave Dombrowski move. Wherever he’s been, Dombrowski has made interesting moves that puts a team over the hump to get them to the postseason. It happened when he landed David Price with the Tigers and Chris Sale with the Red Sox. Now, his big move as President of the Phillies could be acquiring Ian Happ and David Robertson. Happ, 27, is a switch-hitting outfielder who has slashed .284/.367/.446 and can play all three outfield positions. Though he’s played mostly left field with the Cubs, he is athletic enough to play center and is under contract through 2023. Happ would lengthen the lineup and, considering Nick Castellanos has yet to find his stroke, would provide offensive stability until reigning MVP Bryce Harper is activated from the injured list. Robertson, on the other hand, is having a spectacular year with the Cubs saving 14 games and sporting a 1.83 ERA. Both would fill big needs for the Phillies in centerfield and the backend of the bullpen.
Nevertheless, the Phillies would need to give up a haul to acquire both as many contenders are looking for a versatile bat and trustworthy late inning reliever. Johan Rojas is possibly the most exciting offensive prospect in the Phillies system who has the potential to be at least an average hitter with gold glove caliber defense and game changing speed. Giving up Rojas would hurt, but after drafting a similar player in Justin Crawford with the 17th pick in this year’s draft, losing Rojas would be easier to swallow.
Phillies acquire SP Zach Davies from the Diamondbacks in exchange for OF Mickey Moniak.
This deal feels like a no-brainer for the Phillies. Zach Davies is your typical innings eater who limits hard contact and pounds the zone. While he doesn’t throw very hard––averaging only 89 mph with his fastball––Davies is someone you feel confident can go six innings on any given night and keep you in a ballgame. Considering the uncertainty around Zach Eflin and his knee injury, the starting rotation could use a reliable arm. When Eflin returns, Davies or Ranger Suarez could be moved to the bullpen and be used as a long reliever. The cost for the Phillies in this deal is Mickey Moniak, who is in need of a change of scenery. If the Phillies were to acquire Happ or another outfielder, Moniak would become expendable.
Phillies acquire RP Joe Jimenez from the Tigers in exchange for OF Jhailyn Ortiz (#11) and a PTBNL.
Jimenez is a hard-throwing reliever who has struck out 52 batters in 38 innings this year while only walking eight. The 27-year-old righty would provide another dependable arm in the backend of the ‘pen alongside Seranthony Dominguez and ranks in the 92nd percentile in xERA among other pitchers. In addition, he is under club control through 2023. The Phillies would be wise to pick from any of the available arms in the Tigers bullpen as their 3.06 bullpen ERA ranks fourth in baseball. Ortiz is currently at Double-A Reading and possesses above average raw power. The hit tool is a question mark, but if he finds some consistency, Ortiz could be a solid big league hitter that the Tigers could take a chance on.
What the Phillies WILL do:
Phillies acquire SP Zach Plesac from the Guardians in exchange for OFs Mickey Moniak, Jhailyn Ortiz (#11), SP James McArthur (#18), and a PTBNL.
MLB Network insider Jon Heyman reported on Friday that Plesac was on the Phillies radar. The nephew of former Phillie Dan Plesac, the Guardians righty has produced a 4.09 ERA in 18 starts this year. Though he doesn’t have big strikeout numbers, his walk rate is just 6.1% and would fit well in the backend of the rotation. He’ll likely never be the ace of a staff, but he will keep you in games and is under club control through 2025. The Guardians, who are in desperate need of outfield help, would likely ask for Moniak, Ortiz, and Double-A starting pitcher James McArthur, the latter of whom is graded well by rival clubs despite not having a stellar season.
Phillies acquire RPs Joe Jimenez and Tyler Alexander in exchange for SS Casey Martin (#13), OF Simon Muzziotti (#19), and a PTBNL.
With Dombrowski’s connections to the Tigers organization, I think a move for one of their bullpen arms feels likely. Jimenez would fit great in the Phillies pen, as noted earlier, while Alexander could fill a long-reliever-type of role while also making a spot start, if need be. Alexander throws left-handed and is under club control through 2025. Casey Martin is an extremely toolsy athlete who can run well and has sneaky power for his 5’11” frame. He needs to develop more contact, but could entice the Tigers. Simon Muzziotti, on the other hand, is a contact hitter at Double-A who profiles as a good defender at the big league level.
Regardless of what the Phillies do by 6:00 pm on August 2nd, I think we’ll be in for an interesting deadline. No, the Phillies will not acquire Juan Soto, but there are plenty of moves to be had that can get this team back to October baseball. The reigning world champion Atlanta Braves made marginal moves at the deadline last year and caught fire at the right time. In baseball, anything can happen. Some additional names to keep an eye on are starting pitchers Zac Gallen and Tyler Mahle, bullpen arms Josh Staumont and Mark Melancon, and outfielder Michael A. Taylor. All would be excellent acquisitions who could help this team down the stretch run. Buckle up, Phillies fans. These next three days could decide if the Fightins make it back to October in 2022.
Photo: Mitchell Layton/Getty Images
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