Should the Phillies Be Worried About September Nola?
Since 2018, the Phillies have dreaded the month of September. The month is what led to the firing of first-time manager Gabe Kapler after just two seasons with the organization and may be the biggest reason why the Phillies hold the longest playoff drought in the National League. Joe Girardi couldn’t lead the ball club through the month and into the postseason, like he was hired to do. In fact, he’s no longer the manager after his team failed to achieve expectations in the first two months of the 2022 season. After four consecutive years of lifeless losses, poor management, and “If we don’t, we don’ts” (subscription required), the city of Philadelphia is hoping this Phillies team is different. If one thing’s for certain, what must be different this September is the performance of Aaron Nola.
In 2018, the month of September may have cost Nola the Cy Young award where he pitched to a 3.72 ERA in 36.1 innings. For someone who had never pitched 200 innings in a season before, his arm likely tired out towards the finish. But since then, September Nola has pitched to a 6.51 ERA in 2019, 3.57 ERA in the shortened 2020 season, and a 6.19 ERA in 2021. For those keeping track, that’s a 4.87 ERA in the last four Septembers combined––nowhere near adequate for a pitcher who is supposed to be the backbone of your starting rotation. On track to pitch 200 innings for the third time in his career, stamina can no longer be used as an excuse for Nola’s poor September performances. So, what can be attributed to the worst calendar month of his career?
When most pitchers try to explain their struggles, one of the first things they’ll mention is command, or lack thereof. The same can likely be said to illustrate Nola’s misfortunes. One thing to keep in mind, though, is command doesn’t necessarily correlate with walks allowed. Among qualified starting pitchers this season, Nola ranks behind only Corey Kluber in free passes with a total of 22 walks surrendered. However, what command specifically means is the ability to throw the ball exactly where one intends. In Nola’s case, when he struggles, his misses are in a hittable part of the strike zone.
For example, in his most recent start Tuesday night against the Diamondbacks where he gave up eight runs on 10 hits in just four innings of work, Nola struggled with his glove side command (a pitch intended to be away from a left handed hitter). In the second inning, Nola missed badly with a curveball inside that he intended for the outside corner, resulting in a Jake McCarthy two-run triple. Then, in the fourth inning, Nola missed with a fastball up in the zone instead of keeping it low and away. Again, McCarthy made him pay and hit a three-run homer to extend the Diamondbacks lead to 8-0. If the Phillies right-hander wants to avoid another September meltdown, he’ll need to make the adjustment and find his command––or, at the very least, miss outside of zone where hitters are less likely to hurt him.
With an injury-riddled pitching staff, the Phillies need Aaron Nola to be the pitcher he was for the majority of the 2022 season: solid, confident, and trustworthy. He has that in him––we’ve seen it time and time again. Is the spotlight of a pennant chase getting to him? Possibly. But the bright lights got to Alec Bohm for awhile, too, until he found his poise in the form of taking accountability. Now, Bohm has solidified himself at third base and in the middle of the Phillies order. The same can happen for Nola––pitch his game and leave the worrying to the opposition. Maybe this year will be different. Playoff Nola anybody?
Photo: Chris Szagola/AP Photos
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