Ranger Suarez’s Last Stand
For quite some time, Ranger Suarez has been something of a folk hero amongst fans of the Philadelphia Phillies. At just 6’1, 217 pounds, with a fastball that averages barely 93 mph, he has been the little engine that could, the David to opposing offense’s Goliath, mowing down hitters with his arsenal of little, but lethal pitches. His breakout 2022 season in which he went 8-5, with a 1.36 ERA over 106 innings as a reliever and a starter caused his legend to grow. How could this unheralded 25-year-old, who signed for $25,000 at the age of 16, from the sleepy village of Pie de Cuesta, Venezuela, who barely throws a traditional breaking ball, be so insanely effective?
This year, the legend surrounding Suarez has died down as he’s fallen back down from the sun. Although he pitched to a 10-7 record, he posted a 3.65 ERA over 155.1 innings while averaging 3.4 walks per 9 innings suggested that Suarez is mortal after all. In only 13 of his 29 starts he went 6 innings or deeper, and 8 of his starts lasted less than 5 innings. He struggled against right-handed batters – .263 BAA compared to .197 BAA against lefties – generated less swinging strikes than in 2021 – 15.7% to 19.7% – and saw increases in hard hit percentage – 35.3% to 31.3% – as well as barrel percentage – 6.8% to 2.6% – as well as increases in numerous other metrics such as line drive percentage, contact percentage and more. Consequently, his arsenal of pitches which includes three fastball variants (sinker, 4-seam, and cutter), a change-up, and two breaking balls (a curveball and slider), were significantly less effective against the opposition. The ground-ball pitcher who had mystified opposing hitters with a deadly sinker-changeup combination the year prior was no longer was no longer inducing ground-balls and the quick outs that’d once been second nature to Suarez were harder and harder to come by.
Some of Suarez’s regression can be attributed simply to a lack of command. Without overpowering stuff, Suarez – much like Aaron Nola, Kyle Gibson, or Zach Eflin – is reliant on precise location to keep hitters off balance. So much of his success in 2021 came from sinkers that would run in on the hands of left-handed batters or changeups that would hang around the bottom edges of the strike zone. Inducing weak contact was the name of the game with the occasional well-timed 4-seam fastball to freeze unsuspecting batters. Without pristine location, Suarez was forced to live in the heart of the strike zone – his chase miss percentage plummeted on all of his pitches as the hard hit and contact percentages skyrocketed.
Suarez’s largest issue, however, was exposure. His fastball-changeup mix was no longer novel and after pitching 106 innings – the longest stretch of his career by over 50 innings – opposing offenses had plenty of tape on him. The overriding concern with Suarez has always been his lack of a traditional breaking ball to offset the steady diet of fastballs and changeups. After all, how many effective starting pitchers exist without a competent breaking ball? The answer? Very few, if any at all. In 2021, Suarez threw his slider, which sits in the low 80s, just 7.8% of the time. He needed to further incorporate a pitch type that broke significantly differently – towards his glove side – than that of the fastball-changeup combination – which breaks downwards towards his arm side.
In 2022, Suarez addressed this imbalance in his repertoire. Sort of. Upon entering his start against the Texas Rangers on May 3rd, Suarez had walked 8 batters in 18.1 innings and struck out just 12 all while posting a 4.42 ERA. In his next start, May 9th against Seattle, Suarez began throwing a cutter – still a fastball variant but this time with arm side breaking action – and on May 25th against Atlanta he incorporated a curveball alongside his slider. Although the addition of the curveball, which averaged 76.5 mph and had the highest swing and miss percentage amongst all his pitches at 37.6%, and the cutter were a step in the right direction – they significantly increased the effectiveness of his changeup, generating far more swings and misses than before their implementation – it still wasn’t enough to keep hitters off-balance. While Suarez now had three pitches with arm side breaking action, he was still reluctant to use them to their fullest extent, throwing the slider only 3.9%, the curveball 7.7%, and the cutter 9.1% of the time. For Suarez to progress into a viable 3rd starter, he must continue to refine and further incorporate his curveball and slider into his pitch mix.
Which brings us to the biggest start of Suarez’s career, tonight at Citizens Bank Park, in Game 3 of the NLCS against the San Diego Padres. Thankfully, Suarez has always been better than his stuff. He’s always pitched beyond the preconceived limits of his pitch repertoire. It’s part of his mystique, the aura that surrounds him – in the age of 100 mph fastballs, he shouldn’t be this good, yet he is. He’s a gamer, whose blood runs cold with men on base, more than capable of rising to high-pressure situations. He did it in Game 1 of the NLDS against Atlanta, where he allowed a career high five walks in just 3.1 innings, yet escaped multiple bases-loaded jams and surrendered just one run en route to a Phillies victory.
In Suarez’s lone outing against San Diego, he blanked the Padres, pitching 7.1 innings while allowing just 2 runs, the longest start of his season. The son of a farmer, native of a tiny, rural, Venezuelan town, Suarez’s legend operates somewhere between desperado and magician. The incomprehensible success story. The lone ranger atop the mound. Tonight, he has the chance to grow that legend – win and he ascends into the rarified air of postseason hero – lose and he descends into the fall guy and a question mark for season’s beyond. Tonight could not be more pivotal for Suarez or the Phillies. Tonight is Ranger Suarez’s last stand.
Featured Image: Rich Schultz / Getty Images
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