How Will the Phillies Use Andrew Painter in 2023?
What can you change in 526 days? Is it enough time to graduate college, move to a new city, and make new friends? To find a new job, end a relationship, and start afresh? To fall in love, to start a family, to become an adult? How much can you accomplish? For some, it may be an arbitrary number. But for the Philadelphia Phillies, 526 days has been enough time for them to turn the world on its head – to capture the franchise’s first postseason berth in 11 years, their first World Series bid in 13, and the hearts of Philadelphian’s in what feels like forever.
For in the mere 526 days – 1 year, five months, and eight days – since the Phillies selected right-handed pitcher Andrew Painter thirteenth overall in the 2021 MLB Amateur Draft, everything for this team has changed. The Phillies are no longer an expensive mistake, a financial disaster incapable of reaching the promised land of October baseball but instead reigning National League champions with one of the deepest rosters in the sport. They are in the utmost echelon of Major League Baseball, a premiere free agent destination, and a proven playoff team with expectations of contending for a World Series title.
I say this, because 525 days ago, when the Phillies were a rudderless, uncontentious mess, I wrote an article bashing the team’s selection of Painter. I argued that drafting Painter felt like a machination designed by Director of Amateur Scouting Brian Barber to ensure long-term job security – citing the median length for high-school players selected in the first round being nearly twice as long as that of a college prospect – and an appraisal to then Manager Joe Girardi’s familiarity with Painter. I contended that not only did the hard-throwing Painter displayed the typical red-flags of busts of high-school pitcher’s past and that he wouldn’t project well at the big-league level, but that the organization’s bet on his projectability was effectively punting on their team’s ability to compete in the near future – that we should’ve supported our current core with the selection of a college pitcher like our divisional rival Mets and Braves.
Fast forward to just under a year and a half later, and I could not have proven to be more wrong. Not only has Painter proven that his arsenal projects well at the next level – he’s shown the potential to contribute to the Phillies as soon as 2023. In 2022, the lanky 19-year-old took baseball by storm, posting a 1.56 ERA over 103.2 innings across three minor-league levels, en route to being named Baseball America’s Minor League Pitcher of the Year. In his ascension from Single-A to High-A to Double-A, Painter made 22 starts, posting a combined 0.887 WHIP and 13.5 K/9. Across all three levels, he struck out 155 batters while walking just 25 – becoming the Phillies’ first minor-leaguer to post an ERA of under 1.60 with a minimum of 100 innings and 145 or more strikeouts since Cole Hamels in 2003.
Of course, recognition for Painter’s breakout season wasn’t just national but internal as well – in the eyes of Dave Dombrowski and the rest of the Phillies’ front office, Painter placed himself as the lead member of organization’s top three pitching prospects, including 2020 first-round pick Mick Abel and 2021 fifth-rounder Griff McGarry. Prior to signing Taijuan Walker to be the team’s number four in 2023, Dombrowski had stated that they would be leaving the fifth spot in the starting rotation open for “one of the young guys” to take out of Spring Training– be it Painter, Abel, McGarry or big league incumbents Bailey Falter and Christopher Sanchez. According to Manager Rob Thomson, Painter is the most likely of the three minor-league prospects to make the Opening Day roster.
So what happens if he does? If Painter really is impressive enough to skip Triple-A altogether, how do the Phillies use him? With 101 days left until March 30th, a spot on the Opening Day roster would mean that Painter has reached the bigs in just 627 days. That’s 183 days faster than the median time for a college player taken in the top twenty picks of the MLB Amateur Draft from 2000-2018 (810 days) and 831 days or nearly two and a half years faster than a top twenty high school player selected in that same time span (1,458 days). At just 20-years old, could Painter find himself the fifth pitcher in the Phillies starting rotation?
Probably not – at least not in the traditional sense. For although the logical option for the Phillies would be to stash the 6’7” Painter in Triple-A to begin the season, there is a reality in which they find him too essential to their ability to contend to keep him in the minor-leagues. His four-pitch arsenal – which includes a 4-seam fastball that sits at 96-98 mph with above average vertical break and a sweeping low-80s slider that averages nearly a foot of horizontal break – may very well render him as such. Painter’s biggest obstacle, however, is workload. At the Major League level, the Phillies expect their number five starter to give them anywhere from 150-200 innings over a 162 game season – far more than Painter’s 2022 career high of 103.2, a number that was already painstakingly managed. With Painter only being 20-years-old at the start of the 2023 season, the Phillies will look to do everything they can to avoid a repeat of the Spencer Howard situation – which saw their once-prized prospect unable to maintain velocity and command throughout at start at the Major League level.
What the team could use Painter as, however, is as an opener or long-relief man out of the bullpen. A six-man rotation, which ostensibly would save the arms of Zach Wheeler and Aaron Nola, would leave the team exposed to more innings from subpar arms and wear on the bullpen. This isn’t that. Instead, Painter would be used as a 5/A or 5/B in tandem with Falter or Sanchez. In keeping Painter’s development in regard – the team sees him as a starting pitcher and not reliever – the young righty could open games under a relegated pitch count, much like an extended opener for a bullpen game. Only these wouldn’t be bullpen games, but planned starts without extra wear on the ‘pen – Painter could retire after the 3rd-5th inning and be replaced by Falter or vice versa. This way, the team could be getting the most out of Painter while keeping him on a regimented workload – slowly building him up to the role of full-time starter in 2024 or 2025.
Featured Image: MLB.com
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