First Half Review: How Can the Phillies Contend After the All-Star Break?
Well, it’s better than how it began.
To say that the Philadelphia Phillies’ start to the 2023 season was subpar would be generous; in actuality, it was horrific.
By June, the team had played 55 games. They were 25-30, well out of the wild card standings and even further out of the division lead. Stars struggled, the pitching rotation was injured and ineffectual, and morale was low. Then came June.
All it took was one month to turn the season around. The Phillies went 18-8 in June and 5-3 in July to improve their record to 48-41 heading into this week’s All-Star Break. Nick Castellanos and Craig Kimbrel are headed to Seattle for their contributions. A 13-game road winning streak helped push the team to within a half-game of the third wild card spot. The playoffs are within reach.
For the Phillies and their fans alike, the All-Star Break may not have come at a more opportune time. The Phillies didn’t exactly go into the break on fire – dropping two out of three, along with the third wild card spot, to the Miami Marlins – but they didn’t limp in either. They can walk into the week with their heads held high and plenty of reason to feel good about their chances this season.
For the fans, well, the season has been nothing short of a roller coaster ride, with enough twists and turns to make your head spin.
Regardless, let’s take a look at what’s working and what issues need to be addressed heading into the second half.
What’s Working
Both the starting rotation and bullpen have been working double time to turn the team’s season around. Since June 1st, only the Brewers have gotten more innings out of their starting pitching. Taijuan Walker, once an eyesore every 4th day, had a massive June, posting a 5-1 record with a 1.50 ERA over six starts. Ranger Suarez also rebounded last month, recording just a 1.08 ERA in five starts. While Aaron Nola and Zach Wheeler haven’t been spectacular, they have been workhorses – Nola is second in all of baseball with 119.0 innings pitched, with Wheeler not far behind at 104.1 innings pitched.
The bullpen, historically a detriment, has been just as vital to this team’s success. With a record of 19-12, Phillies relievers are ninth in all of baseball with a cumulative ERA of 3.78 and third in Strikeouts per 9 innings with 10.06. Led by a resurgent Craig Kimbrel, the unit has done everything expected of them and more – they’ve kept the team in games when down in the later innings and shut the door when ahead. For a roster supposedly built on the strength of its offense, the Phillies very much go according to their pitching – if their pitchers are on, their hitters likely are too.
What’s Not
While the Phillies’ latest $300 million dollar man, shortstop Trea Turner, with his .249 batting average and 10 errors, can be pointed to as the most obvious flaw on the team’s roster, his disappointing performance is a microcosm of the Phillies’ larger issues. The stars are, in fact, not starring. In 56 games, Bryce Harper has hit just three home runs to go along with a measly 23 RBIs, good for a WAR of just 0.8. JT Realmuto, in 79 games, has hit just .249 with an oWAR of just 2.2 and a dWAR of 0.6 – down from 5.4 and 2.1 last year.
Although he has 22 home runs, Kyle Schwarber hit just .184 in the first half and has been all but unplayable in left field, with a career-worst dWAR of -2.2. For the Phillies to be contenders again, their best players must start living up to their ability.
Cause for Concern
The injuries to the bullpen’s heavy hitters – Jose Alvarado, 15-day IL for left elbow inflammation, and Seranthony Dominguez, out since June 15 with an oblique injury – are troubling given the Phillies’ demanding schedule to start the second half.
The Phillies open with a four-game set against the Padres, followed by a three-game series against Milwaukee – who are also 0.5 games out of the third wild card spot – and another three games against the A.L. Central-leading Guardians. While Dominguez has struggled for much of the year, Alvarado has not.
In 26 appearances, Alvarado has posted a 1.38 ERA with 39 strikeouts and only 9 walks. Although he’s not the closer, one could argue that he’s been just as important – the Phillies are 20-6 in games in which he’s pitched.
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