Comparing the Last Three Eagles Teams Through 13 Weeks
The 2024 Philadelphia Eagles have a 10-2 record through 13 weeks.
Where have we seen this before?
Their prior two teams had jarringly similar records at this time—10-2 in 2023 and 11-1 in 2022.
Looking at both offense and defense, are this season’s Eagles more of a match to the roster that mustered one more win the rest of the way (2023) or the one that came a few points shy of a Super Bowl title (2022)?
Eagles Offense
The Eagles’ offensive identity has remained pretty similar across the last three seasons. They score points, are effective runners, and quarterback Jalen Hurts can air the ball out when necessary.
There has been a balance of weapons throughout the offense, leading to a top-five finish in expected points added per play (EPA/play) in each of them.
But that and success rate (SR) have varied, albeit slightly, both in dropback and rushing situations. Take a look:
| Offense Through 13 Weeks | EPA/play | SR | Dropback EPA | Dropback SR | Rush EPA | Rush SR |
| 2024 Eagles | 0.104 (5th) | 45.8% (12th) | 0.126 (12th) | 47.4% (16th) | 0.083 (1st) | 44.2% (5th) |
| 2023 Eagles | 0.088 (5th) | 45.6% (7th) | 0.151 (5th) | 47.1% (12th) | -0.009 (6th) | 43.3% (7th) |
| 2022 Eagles | 0.124 (2nd) | 49.6% (3rd) | 0.161 (5th) | 47.7% (12th) | 0.079 (1st) | 51.9% (1st) |
Most of the metrics here are more or less the same, but the Eagles were at their best offensively in 2022, without a doubt. Their passing stats in 2022 and 2023 were very close, justifying Hurts being in the MVP discussion during this time in those years, but the rushing favored their Super Bowl season. Led by Miles Sanders in his first (and only) Pro Bowl showing, their ground attack was devastating to opposing defenses. At a 51.9% success rate, it’s no shock that they easily won during that stretch.
Now, with Saquon Barkley in the mix, the Birds are at that level again. Notably, their EPA/play is better, yet their SR is quite a bit worse. The reason for that is probably because Barkley’s explosiveness has been off the charts. It was an obvious area of strength entering his Eagles tenure, but nobody could have guessed he’d be riding explosive plays to the tune of, potentially, the best rushing season in NFL history.
With a player like this combined with the same offensive talent as before (minus Jason Kelce), it’s not surprising that the team, once again, has a top-tier offense. Coordinator Kellen Moore’s offense has been a step ahead of Brian Johnson’s last season, but it’s not as substantial as you’d think.
But, again, the offense was expected to be a strength,h and it is a strength. The defense is where things get a lot clearer, making last season’s team all the more puzzling (how did they win so much?).
Eagles Defense
The offensive shift probably seems minimal by the numbers, and that’s because it was (it did fall apart at the end of the 2023 season, however).
The defense is where the true shift was, though:
| Defense Through 13 Weeks | EPA/play | SR | Dropback EPA | Dropback SR | Rush EPA | Rush SR |
| 2024 Eagles | -0.067 (6th) | 40.2% (4th) | -0.007 (8th) | 41.9% (5th) | -0.175 (2nd) | 37.1% (9th) |
| 2023 Eagles | 0.041 (27th) | 44.1% (20th) | 0.078 (25th) | 46.5% (19th) | -0.049 (24th) | 38.4% (15th) |
| 2022 Eagles | -0.074 (5th) | 43.1% (12th) | -0.117 (2nd) | 42.0% (3rd) | -0.001 (27th) | 44.8% (28th) |
PHOTO: Eric Hartline/Imagn Images
As you can see, the Eagles’ 2023 defense was not very good. Their passing and rushing defenses were both below average, magnifying their ultimate demise. They didn’t look convincing by the eye test, and that’s because they weren’t—late-game heroics probably made them appear a bit better record-wise than they actually were.
The 2022 and 2024 teams are the most similar defensively.
When they went to the Super Bowl, they rode an excellent defensive unit that was able to hang onto big leads that the offense built up. Especially through the air, their opponents couldn’t muster anything—they were losing 0.117 points every single time they dropped back to pass.
The 2024 club has been a bit different, although their passing defense has still been great. The big difference has been on the ground, with opponents costing themselves 0.175 points every time they hand it off. With successful plays just 37.1% of the time, run-heavy NFC teams like the Detroit Lions, Washington Commanders, and Green Bay Packers might think twice about sticking to their bread and butter when the playoffs occur.
Combining elite offense with elite defense, the 2024 Eagles are reminiscent of their last great football team. And remember, this is through 13 weeks—the collapse the 2023 team had might have been surprising because of how fast it happened, but it’s not like they weren’t riding an unsustainable run. The castle was going to crumble eventually.
Through 13 weeks of the NFL season, the Eagles are in a position where, at the minimum, the NFC’s second seed isn’t just likely; it’s trending toward a guarantee.
Yes, the 2023 Eagles fell apart. But this team is far closer to the roster that lost out on a Super Bowl title because of one single field goal.
On an eight-game winning streak, the Birds will look to close out a dominant regular season and have a bit more luck in the playoffs.
PHOTO: Eric Hartline/Imagn Images
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Categorized:Eagles