Realistic Expectations for the Phillies’ Bullpen in 2021
Out of all the questions surrounding this year’s lot in Clearwater, one stands out to me the most: what will the Phillies bullpen bring to the table in 2021?
Will they once again be a prohibitive factor in the Phils’ quest to end their postseason drought? How will the ‘pen be constructed from the long relievers all the way up to the closer?
Will anyone stand out, fall off a cliff, or migrate between the motley crew in deep right-center and the starting rotation? Not that the relieving core will necessarily be a motley crew.
Those words just sound cool, for obvious reasons.
Below are some expectations for the Phils’ bullpen in the coming months, some realistic, others perhaps a tad hopeful. Have fun deciding which belong in either category.
Things Have to Get Better…Right?
There’s no need to delve into the mire of the 2020 bullpen’s performance, other than to say that along with a late-season rash of injuries, the relief core is why the Phils missed out on making the postseason for the 9th? Year in a row. So, logically speaking, there’s nowhere to go but up, right? Well, yes and no.
Photo: Jose F. Moreno/Philadelphia Inquirer
Disregarding this off-season’s additions to the ‘pen for a moment, let me remind you this is Philadelphia we’re talking about. The bad-luck to fan-demand for organizational excellence ratio is as high as any other major market in the country, and there is no given that the fortune will turn the Phillies’ way this season. And why should there be? Nothing says that Archie Bradley must over-perform — especially with his fastball velocity declining over the past few years — or that Brandon Kintzler’s 2020 success will carry on into 2021, or if flame-throwers Sam Coonrod, Jose Alvarado, and JoJo Romero will even find the strike zone, much less make the 40-man roster. Remember the high-expectations for Brandon Workman and David Phelps? They didn’t exactly pan out, to say the least.
Perhaps I’m too cynical, jaded by the horror-show that was last season’s relief core. Do I truly think the Phillies bullpen will disappoint to such a degree in 2021? Not at all. I just want to temper expectations that the team will turn what was their weakest asset into a strength over the course of one offseason. However, the signs—- or more accurately, signings — are encouraging. Even just Archie Bradley and Brandon Kintzler’s presence gives hope, not to mention the slew of younger players and fringe guys that are all pushing to be a part of this year’s squad. Moreover, the intense competition for what Girardi believes to be eight spots indicates an improved mentality over last year’s abysmal group.
Hector Neris Settles Into the Role He Was Destined for All Along
Hector Neris is one of the more frustrating players on the Phillies roster. I say frustrating because his arsenal is very strong — bordering on elite, with a devastating splitter coupled with a fastball and sinker that sit in the mid-nineties — yet he never seems to be able to put it all together. Like most relievers, his issues arise with location — he falls apart when unable to command his splitter — and is hit hard when forced to rely on his 4-seam fastball and splitter.
Moreover, he struggles mightily when behind in the count, his poor pitch location snowballing into a hit or walk more often than not. This troublesome trend is apparent even when Neris is at his most dominant, like in his 2019 campaign in which he posted 28 saves in 36 opportunities with a 2.93 ERA. In 1-0 and 2-0 counts, opposing batters hit .364 and .600 off Neris, respectively. In plate appearances in which the batter was ahead, Neris issued 24 walks. In plate appearances in which Neris was ahead in the count, he gave away a total of 0 free bases. Yes, only 24 walks in 67.2 innings is awesome, but for a streaky pitcher who is utterly dependent on the command of 1 pitch, the aforementioned signs are cause for concern. When Neris is on, he’s as dominant a reliever as anyone else in the game. When he’s off, well, he looks like he belongs in Lehigh Valley instead of South Philadelphia.
Phils’ skipper Joe Girardi is acutely aware of this, especially after a disappointing 2020 season in which opposing batters hit .267 off Neris, ballooning his ERA to 4.57.
That’s why the Phillies signed Archie Bradley and Brandon Kintzler to shore up the bullpen’s back end. Assuming Bradley takes control of the closing role, Neris will battle it out with Kintzler and others for the set-up role in what has the potential to be a deadly 1-2 punch in the closing innings.
Without the pressure to be the savior of a disastrous bullpen, Neris could find freedom in being just a man on the Phillies roster and not The Man.
Connor Brogdon Is an Under-Utilized Pleasant Surprise While JOJO Romero Is Surprisingly Disappointing
I’ll preface this section by acknowledging that I could be wildly wrong. And part of me hopes I am…at least about the Romero part. I like Jojo a lot, not only for his fiery personality but for the left-hander’s fiery arsenal of pitches. Yes, Jojo has stuff — a pair of mid-nineties 4-seam and sinking fastballs with run, along with a solid changeup — gave him 10 strikeouts in 10.2 innings pitched, but just like Neris, his struggles to locate his breaking ball (slider) led to hard-hit balls and a 7.59 ERA.
The Phillies need left-handed arms in the ‘pen, but Romero has some competition for the role, namely in Jose Alvardo and Ranger Suarez. Even if Romero is impressive in Clearwater, I have a hard time buying that he will get time over the more experienced Alvardo, who throws just as hard yet isn’t as hard as Romero.
Two factors emerge when comparing Romero to Suarez.
First, Ranger will have to prove that his awful effort in 2020 was an aberration. Secondly, while Romero may have more raw talent than Suarez, they are two different types of pitchers. Suarez is a converted starter who fits more into the long-reliever mode. At the same time, Romero is a power-pitching, late-inning specialist who struggles to sustain command over an extended time on the mound. In a bullpen top-heavy with late relievers, Suarez may be able to edge out Romero for a spot on the 40-man roster. Romero may benefit from time spent marinating in Lehigh Valley so that his command is sharp enough to make the most out of what limited opportunities he may receive.
Connor Brogdon, on the other hand, is a completely different story. The hard-throwing right-hander flourished towards the end of 2020, riding his fastball-changeup combination to 14 strikeouts over 8 ⅔ innings without allowing a single run. The only issue? He wasn’t used enough. I know Brogdon was a rookie, and Girardi likely didn’t want to put a strain on his arm, but the Phillies sorely needed a shut-down reliever during their late-season collapse.
While Girardi stated that:
“I think (Brogdon) has the ability to be a closer one day…we’ll find places for him to pitch in the back end”, the competition for relief roles is intense.
Additionally, Girardi hasn’t exactly been generous in granting playing time to young players. Just ask Adam Haseley. Let’s hope Girardi sticks to his word and throws Brogdon in the fire more often this season.
Vince Velasquez and Spencer Howard Are a Hop, Skip, and Dependable Pitch Command From Cracking the Starting Rotation
And now, finally, for the island of misfit toys. Or erstwhile starters. Or more accurately, even more, hard-throwing right-handers that the Phillies don’t know what to do with. Both Vince Velasquez and Spencer Howard fit into the mold of starting pitchers who aren’t quite good enough to be starters but have also never fully committed to a relief role, so their future is murky. In short, they might give you 3-5 innings of decent pitching before imploding. Awesome.
Let’s start with Howard, as he is the younger of the two and possesses the most long-term upside. The highly-touted prospect struggled mightily in his first season as a Major League starting pitcher, chiefly due to lingering shoulder issues and an inability to maintain fastball velocity over the course of multiple innings. Although I think it benefits the Phillies to develop Howard as a starting pitcher in the long-term, I think the downside to following that course is seen in Howard’s older counterpart Vince Velasquez. Velasquez was always pushed into a starting role, first out of necessity and later out of organizational desperation to make something out of the prospect they’ve been grooming for years.
Although Velasquez was never as hyped a prospect as Howard, the younger pitcher faces a similar situation in his initial years in the Bigs: lack of starting rotation depth.
Although the Phillies signed Chase Anderson and Matt Moore as the potential 4 and 5 starters, neither of the two have displayed the ability to pitch deep into games routinely. As a matter of fact, number 3 starter Zach Eflin hasn’t displayed that ability either. Despite the bullpen potentially being a good spot for Howard to develop, I think the Phillies still give him the occasional spot start or at most use him in a long-relief role.
They would benefit far more from developing Howard into a future rotation piece than a solid middle-to-late reliever for years to come. Let it be known, however, that this should be Howard’s final chance at becoming a valid starting pitcher. If he fails, the Phils should jump ship and develop their closer of the future to avoid their current conundrum with Velasquez. Look for Howard to start in situations like the second game of a 7-inning doubleheader in which only making it through 5 innings isn’t the end of the world.
As for Velasquez, the long-reliever or even a back-end role in the bullpen feels like a given. As much as the Phillies don’t want to admit it, they have to come to terms with the bitter truth: Vince Velasquez isn’t a Major League starting pitcher. If the hyper-competitive Velasquez buys into a relief role, then he could surprise all of us by using his high-heat to be an effective late-inning reliever.
Featured Image: Jose F. Moreno/Philadelphia Inquirer
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