What Can We Expect From Ranger Suarez in 2023?
From the outside, the Phillies’ miraculous run to the 2022 World Series seemed like a surprise. But for those who’d been watching all season long, it was anything but that. Instead, it was a culmination of truth – a vindication of something that had been simmering underneath the team’s surface for the past six months. It was, for the first time all year, that the Phillies actually played to their potential. For lost within those six long regular season months, were stretches of brilliance, overshadowed by a decade of doubt and shame that had turned even the most passionate fanbase cold and cynical.
Now entering the 2023 season as the reigning National League champions, the Phillies have quelled those doubts and turned a city back towards them once again. But excellence comes at a price, perhaps one greater than any paycheck John Middleton has signed this offseason: expectation. For the first time what feels like forever, the Phillies are expected to contend for a title. They are expected to be one of baseball’s best teams, not just in the postseason, but across all 162 regular season games as well.
Thankfully, with an estimated payroll of just over $240 million, they have the man-power to meet those expectations. In terms of raw potential, the Phillies might just have the most dangerous roster in the sport, with an exceptionally deep lineup (even without Bryce Harper), a talented starting rotation, and a bullpen stocked with ferocious fireballers. They are a team molded to their strengths – they want to score, early and often enough that by the time the 6th inning stretch rolls around, they can hand off the game to a flurry of back end relievers that could substitute as closers on most any other team.
A large part of that strategy, however, is keeping the opposing team in check – and with a defense that can only aspire to be competent, that duty falls solely upon the shoulders of the starting rotation. As it stands now, only four of the likely five starting pitchers are cemented in the rotation – fans will have to wait a few more weeks to see if the teenage phenom Andrew Painter will supplant Bailey Falter as the fifth starter on the Opening Day roster.
Hidden amongst the hype of Painter, the general brilliance of Zach Wheeler and Aaron Nola, and novelty of free-agent signee Taijuan Walker, is perhaps the most quietly intriguing member of the rotation, left-hander Ranger Suarez. The definition of a crafty lefty, Suarez has been the little engine that could for the Phillies ever since his breakout season in 2021, when he posted a lethal 1.36 ERA across 39 appearances (106 innings), including twelve starts. Although he fell back to earth in 2022 – 10-7, with a 3.65 ERA over 155.1 innings – Suarez showed up big in the postseason, posting a 2-0 record in three starts across the NLDS, NLCS, and World Series, along with recording the save in game 5 of the NLCS to send the Phillies to the World Series. He was a gamer, performing his best when his team needed him the most, and a microcosm of the Phillies’ success: despite a tumultuous regular season, his true potential flashed on the game’s biggest stage.
So what can we expect from Suarez in 2023? More importantly, what do the Phillies need Suarez to be if they want to fulfill their potential?
Reliable. Consistent. Healthy. If anything can be taken from the 2022 regular season, it’s that good pitching can be hard to come by. After missing significant time in 2022, the long-term health of ace Zach Wheeler is now in concern. When Zach Eflin went down in late June, the team was left without a fifth starter for much of the year. Although the signing of Taijuan Walker as the fourth starter was a welcome addition to the rotation, the team has not yet named their fifth starter with just over a month until Opening Day – this alone raises the bar for Suarez.
For if the crafty Suarez replicates last season’s performance and is merely mediocre, the Phillies playoff hopes won’t implode. The team can still be successful with Suarez merely holding the line. But if the franchise wants to be truly special, they will have to be firing on all cylinders and on every third day, be winning because of Suarez. Regardless if the fifth starter is Falter, Painter, or another candidate, the average length of their starts is likely to be less than that of the other four starters, thus putting more pressure on the bullpen.
Suarez, by default, will be left to pick up the slack. He’ll need to consistently pitch deeper into games – he reached the 6 inning mark in only 13 of his 29 starts in 2022 – likely exceeding the 155 innings he pitched in 2022. Not only will his command have to improve, but his pitch mix will as well. Without overpowering stuff, Suarez has to live at the edges of the strike zone, strategically picking his moments of attack to keep hitters off balance. In order to do so, Suarez will have to break out of his comfort zone and further implement his breaking balls – slider and curveball – to ensure the effectiveness of his trademark sinker-changeup combo.
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Categorized:Phillies